• J.A. Cavalier


Bulls @ Heat (MIA -4.5, 207)


J.A. Cavalier reviews

Bulls vs Heat Free Pick 4/26/21

The lowest total on tonight’s board is here – Chicago at Miami – featuring two teams that just played each other on Saturday. Duncan Robinson, who was in a bit of a slump, hit 7-of-15 three-pointers to help the Heat beat the Bulls 106-101.

Saturday’s total was a super-low 203.5 and tonight’s game features a total of 207. Now, Miami has played consecutive games against the same team eight times so far this season. In six of those instances, the second game’s total has gone Under.

It may have something to do with familiarity, but it likely has more to do with Miami’s defense. The Heat are third in the league in points allowed per game (107.1) which is likely due to a defense that allows opponents to shoot just 45.1 percent from the field. That also ranks third in the NBA.

The Heat have won four of their past five games largely because of the defense. Miami allowed point totals of 101, 87, 91, and 107 in those four wins. In those five games, the total went Under three times.

There is also the issue of Miami’s offense. The Heat rank 28th in pace at 100.2 possessions per game. As a result, Miami is 27th in the league in scoring averaging just 106.4 points per game.

The Bulls defense has been just as good recently. Chicago has won three of its last five games and in the three wins Chicago gave up 91, 96, and 96 points.

Chicago will be without leading scorer Zach LaVine (27.5 ppg) once again. Miami can focus on slowing down Nikola Vucevic who had 26 points, 14 rebounds, and six assists on Saturday.

With the game at home tonight, play the Under. Miami will control the pace and the defense will smother the Bulls.

Under the posted total 206

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