Patriots vs Dolphins Free Pick
Patriots at Dolphins (MIA - 2.5, 41.5)
The Dolphins lost a heartbreaker against Kansas City last week but definitely showed why they are a playoff team in the AFC this season. They host New England who is coming off a bad loss to Los Angeles where Cam Newton was benched mid-game. He gets the start again this week but is facing a Fins defense that picked off Patrick Mahomes three times in a single game. The Fins have really struggled to find a healthy running back but Tua stepped up in the passing game last week with over 300 yards but he faces a Pats defense that is 9th in the league in stopping the pass.
The Dolphins should hop on a plane, fly to Vegas and ask the oddsmakers what's up. I view this as the best value of the week and love Dolphins -2.5. They’re coming off a game where the covered against Kansas City and hung around the whole game and they finally saw some passing life from Tua. Miami is 10-3 to cover this season and they’re 5-0 in their last five against the number at home. New England doesn’t having a passing offense, it just doens’t exist and now they’re facing a secondary who stole it three times from Mahomes and has a corner in Howard who is a ball magnet. The Pats are just 2-5 covering in their last 7 on the road and it feels like a game they won’t hang around in.
Prediction: Patriots 19 Miami 27