Quick Picks with Coach Rick Bowe, CBB Picks, CBB Free Picks, CBB Predictions 2/19/26

Quick Picks with Coach Rick Bowe, CBB Picks, CBB Free Picks, CBB Predictions 2/19/26

MEMPHIS @ SOUTH FLORIDA (USF -8.5, 159.5)

CBB ODDS, CBB PREDICTIONS, CBB PREVIEWS

COACH RICK CBB PREVIEWS

TIGERS @ BULLS 2/19/26

The Memphis Tigers (12-13) travel to the Yuengling Center tonight to face the first-place South Florida Bulls (18-8) in a critical American Athletic Conference (AAC) showdown. This matchup features two programs on opposite trajectories. USF is riding a four-game winning streak and sits atop the conference, while Memphis has struggled recently, losing two straight and five of their last seven road games.

South Florida enters this game as a heavy favorite, and the analytics suggest why. The Bulls' offense is one of the most potent in the country, ranking 10th nationally in points per game (88.8) playing at the 18th-fastest adjusted tempo. This "pace-and-space" system, led by coach Bryan Hodgson, creates significant problems for a Memphis team that has been inconsistent on the road.

USF has a huge advantage on the offensive glass. USF ranks 12th nationally in offensive rebounding percentage (38.0%). Memphis struggles significantly in this area, ranking near the bottom of the country in defensive rebounding. The Bulls' ability to generate second-chance points through Izaiyah Nelson (16 double-doubles) will be a major factor.

USF also ranks 33rd in the country in free-throw attempt rate. Memphis' defense is prone to fouling, ranking 288th in free-throw rate allowed. This suggests USF will have frequent trips to the charity stripe tonight.

Memphis has not fared too well on the road this season. During conference play, Memphis has lost five of their seven road games by at least seven points. They are currently 2-8 SU and ATS  on the road this season.

Memphis is dealing with significant internal friction. Hasan Abdul Hakim was recently kicked off the team, and while Zach Davis returns from suspension, the team's chemistry is a major question mark. Plus, there are some rumblings about head coach Penny Hardaway and whether or not he could be in jeopardy of losing his job. Conversely, USF is coming off a massive emotional road win against Florida Atlantic (83-81) and holds a 10-2 record at home.

Both teams lean toward high-scoring affairs, and the stylistic matchup points toward the Over. USF wants to run at every opportunity (72.4 adjusted tempo, 22nd in NCAA), and Memphis has shown a willingness to play fast as well (70.0 adjusted tempo, 51st in NCAA). USF averages 88.8 points per game, while Memphis averages 74.8. If they both hit their average tonight, the Over is in trouble.

In their last 10 games, Memphis has seen the Over hit 60 percent of the time. USF has seen the Over hit in 4 of their last 10, but their home games tend to be higher scoring due to the energy of the Yuengling Center crowd. Plus, the Bulls usually face bigger numbers when playing at home. 

While Memphis ranks 42nd in adjusted defensive efficiency, they allow 73.8 points per game. USF’s defense allows 78.5 points per game, ranking 299th in points allowed. Both teams have the offensive tools to exploit these defensive gaps.

USF features elite perimeter shooters in Wes Enis and Joseph Pinion, who have combined for 169 three-pointers this season. Memphis counters with Sincere Parker, who has been on a tear, scoring 20+ points in four of his last six games. With both teams possessing high-volume scorers and playing at a top-50 national pace, the scoreboard should be moving constantly.

USF is 11-4 at home this season, while Memphis is a dismal 2-8 on the road. Memphis struggles with ball security, ranking 336th in turnover rate. USF’s defense is opportunistic, and playing in a loud home environment usually exacerbates turnover issues for visiting teams.

Get free CBB Picks and CBB Predictions for the top games on the weekly 2026 CBB schedule from the YLose.com  crew, one of the industry's largest networks of premier expert CBB handicappers. YLose.com has been bringing the CBB betting community the best CBB free picks and predictions for nearly three decades. Visit daily for the best CBB moneyline and point spread odds and game totals.

FREE PICK: MEMPHIS +9.5

If you have access to Caesars, you can still get a 9.5 on Memphis. If not, play it at +8.5. Memphis has lost two straight and it seems like they are in disarray. This is the type of game where they can prove they do belong. Keep in mind, the Tigers are only 2.5 games out of first place in the AAC. South Florida is clearly the better team here, but they don’t typically cover spreads like this. Take out the early season giant spreads that the Bulls covered and you’ll find that USF has only covered 2 of 9 games where the spread was 7.5 or higher. Memphis has the No. 1 defense in terms of efficiency in the conference and that defense will keep them in this game tonight. 

Coach Rick Day Pass $49

BUY NOW

Ylose expert Coach Rick Bowe delivers his daily Quick Picks. The Coach continues to roll up big wins in college basketball, college football, the NFL, MLB and much more. Coach Rick offers a unique perspective to handicapping. Check out his daily free picks right here and jump on his daily Best Bets, which you can find right here at Ylose.com/coach.