Quick Picks with Coach Rick Bowe, CFB Picks, CFB Free Picks, CFB Predictions 11/5/25

Quick Picks with Coach Rick Bowe, CFB Picks, CFB Free Picks, CFB Predictions 11/5/25

KENT STATE @ BALL STATE (BALL -3.5, 47.5)

Tonight's MAC-tion features Kent State traveling to Muncie, Ind., to take on Ball State. Despite having a 3-5 record overall, Kent State recently defeated Bowling Green 24–21 at home. Ball State is now 3-5 on the season after losing to Northern Illinois 21-7 on the road. Five of the previous six games in this series have been won by Ball State.

After a thrilling comeback victory over Bowling Green 24-21, Kent State enters this midweek MAC-tion matchup with some momentum. Halfway through the third quarter, the Golden Flashes fell behind 21-3, but they rallied with 21 consecutive points, led by a trick-play touchdown pass from wideout Da'Realyst Clark to Wayne Harris.

With over 1,100 yards and 11 touchdowns against just two interceptions, quarterback Dru DeShields has been reliable if unimpressive. His ability to protect the football has also kept Kent State in games even when the offense falters.

Balance has been the Golden Flashes' biggest problem. With an average rushing offense of less than 90 yards per game, they are near the bottom of the FBS, which has put a lot of pressure on DeShields and the passing attack. The offensive line has had trouble creating steady lanes, but running back Gavin Garcia has displayed flashes, including a 45-yard touchdown burst against Bowling Green. The go-to target has been wide receiver Cade Wolford, who has stretched defenses with his ability to get downfield and hauled in six touchdowns. Wolford and the passing game will have more opportunities to make plays if Kent State can get Garcia going early and keep Ball State's defense honest.

Giving up more than 36 points per game and letting opponents move the ball both on the ground and through the air, Kent State's defense has been among the weakest in the MAC. Against a Ball State team that prefers to rely on its ground game, they have been gashed for more than 200 rushing yards per game, which is a dangerous trend. Nevertheless, in the comeback victory over Bowling Green, the Flashes displayed some tenacity, recording three sacks and seven tackles for loss. They will give themselves an opportunity to steal another one on the road if they can exert the same amount of energy and push Ball State into long-yardage situations.

Ball State returns home following a humiliating 21-7 defeat at Northern Illinois, where the offense struggled to establish a rhythm. Kiael Kelly, the quarterback, added 86 yards on the ground and threw for 136 yards with a touchdown, but he also threw two costly interceptions. The Cardinals were unable to maintain drives in the second half. The good news is that they have been a different team at Scheumann Stadium. Ball State will look to get back on track in front of their own supporters where they are undefeated at home this season and average 32 points per game.

Kelly and running back Qua Ashley have combined for over 900 rushing yards and eight touchdowns this season, demonstrating the Cardinals' run-first philosophy. Kelly can take shots downfield when the ground game is effective, but the passing attack has been among the least effective in the FBS, averaging only 130 yards per game. The most dependable target has been wide receiver Qian Magwood, but Ball State's best chance to dominate this game will come from hammering the ball against a Kent State defense that has had a terrible time stopping the run. The Cardinals should be able to set the pace if Ashley and Kelly can get established early.

Ball State's defense has been patchy, but they have forced seven turnovers in their last three games, demonstrating occasional playmaking ability. Nathan Voorhis, a defensive end, has been outstanding, leading the MAC with 10 sacks and placing in the top three nationally. His capacity to exert pressure on DeShields might change the outcome, particularly if Kent State is compelled to make blatant passing downs. At home, the Cardinals have also improved their discipline, reduced their number of penalties, and played with greater vigor. Ball State's defense should be able to support their run-heavy offense and give them a good chance to continue their winning streak at home if they can contain Garcia and prevent Wolford from getting away with it.

Ball State and Kent State have both relied on conservative, run-heavy strategies that chew clock but don't always convert into points. The Cardinals' passing game has been among the least effective in the MAC, and the Golden Flashes have had trouble establishing a reliable rushing attack. This matchup looks more like a grind-it-out battle than a shootout.

FREE PICK: UNDER 47.5

Look at the above paragraph and you get an idea why this game is going Under the total. There has been some line movement too with several books now down to 46.5. Both offenses struggle with Ball State averaging 16.4 points per game (130th) and Kent State at 18.6 (125th). Expect a slow pace tonight that grinds the clock. Both teams rank near the bottom of the FBS in plays per game - Ball State (63.7, 118th) & Kent State (60.3, 135th).

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Ylose expert Coach Rick Bowe delivers his daily Quick Picks. The Coach continues to roll up big wins in college basketball, college football, the NFL, MLB and much more. Coach Rick offers a unique perspective to handicapping. Check out his daily free picks right here and jump on his daily Best Bets, which you can find right here at Ylose.com/coach.