Quick Picks with Coach Rick Bowe, MLB Picks, MLB Free Picks, MLB Predictions 5/9/26
- rbowe7447
- May 9
- 5 min read
ATLANTA @ LA DODGERS LAD -168, 9)
MLB ODDS, MLB PREDICTIONS, MLB PREVIEWS
COACH RICK MLB PREVIEWS
BRAVES @ DODGERS 5/9/26
The Dodgers took the series opener 3-1 last night, and tonight's rematch at Dodger Stadium is shaping up to be another tactical battle. Coach Rick has analyzed the latest pitching matchups, sharp money movement, and player trends to identify the best value for tonight's game.
This heavyweight clash continues tonight with a premier pitching matchup featuring Spencer Strider for the Braves and Blake Snell for the Dodgers. While both teams are navigating significant injury hurdles—most notably the absences of Ronald Acuña Jr. for Atlanta and Mookie Betts for Los Angeles—the depth of these rosters remains elite. The Dodgers' recent acquisitions, including Kyle Tucker, have kept their offense dangerous, while the Braves continue to lean on the power of Matt Olson.
The Dodgers are currently favored at -153 on the moneyline. Los Angeles has been incredibly resilient at home, and the addition of Tucker has provided a massive boost to a lineup missing Betts. Strider is a formidable opponent, but he has just one very mediocre start this season. He only pitched 3.1 innings, walked 5, allowed a homer, and gave up 3 ER in a win over Colorado at Coors Field.
GAME TOTAL ANALYSIS
The total is set at 8.5. Last night's 3-1 finish highlights how these two pitching staffs can suppress scoring even against high-powered offenses. With Strider and Snell on the mound, we are looking at two of the highest strikeout-rate pitchers in the game.
Strider holds a career 26.2% K-rate against this roster, while Snell has fanned 30.4% of the Braves hitters he has faced. The problem is that this will be just the second start in 2026 for Strider and it’s the first start of the season for Snell. Early season Blake Snell is typically not good. It takes him a while before he begins to dominate hitters.
PLAYER PROP RECOMMENDATIONS
Tucker has been the most consistent hitter for the Dodgers since his arrival. He is currently in peak form and serves as the anchor for this modified lineup. Tucker has recorded at least one hit in each of his last 5 games, averaging 1.4 hits per contest.
Over his last 20 games, he has hit safely in 16. For the season through 37 games, Tucker has gone Over 0.5 Hits 75.68% of the time. While Strider is a solid pitcher, Tucker recorded a hit last night and now has at least one hit in 2 of his last 3 games against the Braves.
Matt Olson is the engine of the Braves' offense right now. With the team missing Acuña Jr., the RBI opportunities for Olson have actually increased as he's asked to do more heavy lifting. Olson has cleared this 1.5 HRR line in 80% of his last 15 games and 80% of his last 20 games. He is averaging 2.87 HRR per game this season, well above this 1.5 line. Olson has been even better on the road, hitting the Over in 71.43% of his road games.
Snell is a high-volume strikeout pitcher who matches up well against a Braves lineup that can be prone to the "K" when facing elite left-handed stuff. Snell hit the over on 4.5 strikeouts in 9 of his last 10 games last season. He has a career 30.4% strikeout rate against the current Braves roster, having fanned 24 batters in 79 plate appearances. The only issue is how long Snell will pitch in this game. But, keep in mind, this prop line opened at 3.5 and moved up to 4.5.
NEWS & MATCHUP NOTES
The story of this game is the battle of attrition. The Los Angeles Dodgers are missing Mookie Betts and could be without Tyler Glasnow for a while, but the front office's aggressive moves in the offseason to bring in guys like Tucker and Santiago Espinal have kept them at the top of the NL West. Tucker's 100% hit rate over his last 5 games shows he has fully integrated into the Dodgers' system.
The Atlanta Braves are leaning heavily on Strider to even the series. Strider has been elite in the past, but the Braves' offense has been inconsistent without Ronald Acuña Jr. Snell will look to exploit this. He has held the Braves to a collective .188 batting average over his career.
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FREE PICK: OVER 8.5
These are two of the top scoring teams in baseball. Atlanta is No. 2, averaging 5.49 runs per game. The Dodgers are fifth at 5.24 per game. Last night, Chris Sale had a quality start for the Braves and Emmet Sheehan and the LA bullpen held Atlanta to just one run as the game went Under. Tonight, one might expect similar results given the two starting pitchers, but Spencer Strider is nowhere near the pitcher he once was. His fastball is not getting to 95 mph and he walked 5 in his first start against the Rockies. Early season Blake Snell is also typically not good either. In 2024 he gave up 3, 7, 5, 4, 3, and 3 ER before finally settling in. Last year, he gave up 7 runs in his first 9 IP before missing four months of the season only to return in August. One of those early starts last year was against the Braves. Snell allowed 5 runs, all unearned, but he walked 4 and gave up 5 hits. The final score of that game was 6-5. Strider hasn’t faced LA in 3 years, but his last start against them was at Dodger Stadium - 6IP, 1HR, 2BB, 4 ER, final score 8-7. Both pitchers should give up a few runs and these offenses will battle it out at the end.
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