NFL Free Pick
KANSAS CITY vs. SAN FRANCISCO (SF -2, 47.5)
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CHIEFS vs. 49ERS 2/11/24
In their previous six games against the San Francisco 49ers (14-5 SU, 9-10 ATS), the Kansas City Chiefs (14-6 SU, 12-7-1 ATS) have gone 5-1 SU and ATS, with the Chiefs winning 31-20 in Super Bowl LIV. If the Chiefs defeat the 49ers in Super Bowl LVIII on February 11 in Las Vegas, they will become the first team to repeat as Super Bowl champs since the New England Patriots.
In its last 15 playoff games, the Chiefs are 13-2 SU and 11-4 ATS and since the start of last year’s postseason, Kansas City is 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS. In their previous 16 games against teams with winning records, the 49ers are 13-3 SU. In the last six meetings between the 49ers and Chiefs, the OVER is 4-2.
The 49ers, 7.5-point favorites in the NFC Championship Game, defeated the Detroit Lions 34-31 at home on Sunday after erasing a 24-7 halftime deficit. With 48 rushing yards on five rush attempts, 267 passing yards, one touchdown pass, and one interception, QB Brock Purdy was outstanding. RB Christian McCaffrey gained 90 yards and two touchdowns on 20 carries and also gained 42 receiving yards on four receptions.
The 49ers defeated the Green Bay Packers 24–21 in the divisional round, but they needed a touchdown on their last drive to complete their two postseason comeback victories. After going 6-0 SU and 4-2 ATS in its prior six games, San Francisco is now 3-2 SU and 1-4 ATS in its last five games.
As 4.5-point road underdogs against the top-seeded Baltimore Ravens in the AFC Championship Game on Sunday, the Chiefs relied heavily on their defense to pull off an unexpected 17-10 victory. Patrick Mahomes put up yet another impressive performance, completing 30-of-39 passes for 241 yards and one touchdown. That touchdown pass was caught by Travis Kelce, who ended up with 11 catches for 116 yards on the day.
As the Chiefs struggled through a 3-5 SU and 2-5-1 ATS slump in November and December, many fans and experts were writing Kansas City off as a real postseason threat. Since then, the Chiefs have gone 5-0 SU and ATS and pulled off road upsets of the Buffalo Bills and the Ravens on the road.
The key for the 49ers is to get an early lead. Then, they can use their superior defense and running game to gradually wear down the Chiefs. That is San Francisco at its best. This postseason, the Niners were forced to alter their plan with two consecutive comeback victories.
During the regular season, Kansas City was second in the NFL in both total defense (allowing 289.8 total yards per game) and scoring defense (17.3 points per game). That will make it difficult for the 49ers to control the game with its running game.
Miami, Baltimore, and Buffalo are the three top-six scoring offenses that Kansas City has faced thus far in the postseason. The three best offenses in the league have only scored an average of 13.7 points per game on Steve Spagnuolo's defense.
The Chiefs' 18th-ranked rushing defense in the NFL during the regular season, which allowed 113.2 rushing yards per game, is the only apparent weakness of this defense. Baltimore's elite rushing attack was limited to just 81 rushing yards on 16 attempts by Kansas City. With an average of 140.5 rushing yards per game this season, San Francisco ranked third in the NFL. The Chiefs' performance against the 49ers' running game could be the deciding factor in Super Bowl LVIII.
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J.A. CAVALIER FREE PICK: 49ers -2
