Arsenal vs Chelsea, Premier League, 4/23/2024
Arsenal vs Chelsea - Free Pick
Chelsea +1.5 Asian Handicap (Spread) at -160 (3 units)
Arsenal are coming off another average performance at the weekend against a massively depleted Wolves side. In that game, they opened the scoring with a fortuitous goal as Trossard mis-hit a shot that found the top corner, then added their second in injury time when the game was stretched.
This performance follows a dreadful display against Bayern Munich in the Champions League and a 0-2 home loss to Aston Villa. With all the pressure on them, Arsenal, holding a 22% chance of winning the Premier League, are expected to win here, but I don't believe it will be straightforward
In their last meeting, it ended 2-2, with Chelsea arguably being the better side. Chelsea is known for creating chances and scoring goals, even on the road. They currently score at a rate of 1.73 per 90 on the road and have found the net in all of their last seven road games in the league.
Should Chelsea score here, Arsenal would need to score three times for this bet to lose.
Chelsea has also performed commendably against the top teams. They had a very close game with Manchester City in the FA Cup semi-final at the weekend, where they conceded just 0.66xGA, and notable victories like the 4-3 win over Manchester United, the 3-2 win over Newcastle, and the 1-1 with Manchester City in the league back in February.
In Arsenal's last 10 games against top-half clubs, results haven't been amazing: they have only won five, scoring 16 goals and conceding 15. We should also note that players like Saliba, Gabriel, Rice, Saka, and Ødegaard, having played over 4,000 minutes for club and country, are showing signs of fatigue as the season draws to a close.
All things considered, Chelsea can score here and do more than enough to cover this spread in what is usually a competitive fixture.
Pick: Under Chelsea +1.5 Spread at -160 (3 units)
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