Atalanta vs Liverpool Free Pick, Europa League, 4/18/2024
Atalanta vs Liverpool - Free Pick
Atalanta +0.75 Spread (Asian Handicap) at +103 (2 units)
*The +0.75 Asian Handicap means we are paid in full if Atalanta win or draw, If they lost by 1 goal it's a half loss, if they lose by 2 or more goals it's a full loss.
Let's start by saying that Liverpool have massively overperformed their xG (expected goals) these last two seasons when travelling in Europe, in last season's Champions League they scored 11 goals in their 4 road games off 5.9xG and this season we've seen them score 11 goals off 6.88xG
Liverpool have a three goal deficit to overturn which they likely feel they can overturn but I just wonder what motivation levels are like now after their morale crushing loss at the weekend that damaged their title hopes
Across EPL and Europa League, Liverpool have only kept clean sheets on the road to bottom half EPL teams (Sheff Utd, Burnley, Bournemouth, and Nottm Forest)
Going of ELO club rankings, Atalanta would be close to the likes of Newcastle/Chelsea/Brighton in terms of current strength. The last time Liverpool travelled to Brighton they went off at +105, +125 away to Chelsea and +200 away to Newcastle. Considering this is a European away game it's hard to get behind Liverpool's current price of -150.
A big problem for Liverpool this season is the production of their strikers, Salah and Nunez both have just 10 non-penalty goals this season
Looking at Nunez season he's only scored against two Top half teams in the league, West Ham and Newcastle while Salah has only 5 non-penalty goals when playing away from Anfield this season (all comps)
Atalanta at home have an xG supremacy across all competitions of +1.33 which is very respectable
They have only lost to Inter (close game), Napoli (didn't deserve to lose) and Bologna (close game) across all competitions at home this season
They've also scored in all but one home game this season (Vs Juventus) which would mean Liverpool would need to score at least 4 to push this to Extra time.
It's hard to know how Liverpool approach this now, statistically they probably have a slightly better chance of winning the league than winning this competition now, With that in mind we may see a drop off in intensity with rotation.
Pick: Barcelona Atalanta +0.75 Asian Handicap (spread) at +103 (2 units)
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