Bayern Munich vs Real Madrid, Champions League, 4/30/2024
Bayern Munich vs Real Madrid - Free Pick
Real Madrid Draw no Bet (Tie no Bet) at +100 (2 units)
Real Madrid +0 on the spread (asian handicap) is the same thing
I believe these prices would be wildly different had Bayern met Real Madrid in the quarter-finals. The Arsenal result over two legs has really changed people's perception over a deeply flawed side.
Let's revisit that first leg against Arsenal, a game in which Arsenal were heavily favoured to win. Bayern were trailing early only to be gifted a goal that came off a defensive error, the 2nd a cheap penalty. Outside of those two goals Bayern didn't have a shot on target.
In their other UCL matches, they had an easy run, facing the weakest version of Man Utd in decades, Galatasaray, a stubborn FC Copenhagen that actually caused them some trouble, and Lazio, who are currently outside the top six in Italy.
Domestically, they've struggled against top-tier teams, particularly in 2024. Dortmund defeated them 2-0 in March, they edged past RB Leipzig in February with a sublime finish from Kane in injury time, and suffered a 3-0 loss to Leverkusen that same month.
Team news favours the visitors who will be at full strength with the exception of Dani Carvajal, they also rotated heavily at the weekend.
Tuchel is less concerned with fatigue and played a number of starters at the weekend against Frankfurt, he believes more in rhythm so Kimmich, De Ligt, Dier, Mazraoui, Goretzka, Guerrio, Muller, Laimer, and Kane all started.
Bayern will be missing Gnabry, Upamecano, Laimer, Coman, and Boey. Musiala, dealing with tendon irritation, and Sane, suffering from pelvic pain, have been cleared to play but are unlikely to be fully fit. Sane was not at his best in the second leg against Arsenal and had minimal impact on the game; a similar performance is expected here.
There's also some talk that De Ligt hasn't trained today but I'm not 100% if he'll be unavailable here.
Final Word: Bottom line here is that Bayern have regressed a lot, hence the rebuild that is planned over the next two seasons., expect another dominant performance from Real Madrid as they look to win their 15th European Cup
Pick: Real Madrid Draw no Bet (tie no bet) at +100 (2 units)
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