CINCINNATI @ BALTIMORE (BAL -3.5, 46)
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BENGALS VS. RAVENS 11/16/23
NFL primetime football has served up 11 straight Unders. Will Thursday’s Bengals-Ravens matchup give us another? Cincinnati (5-4 SU, 4-4-1 ATS) has seen the Under cash in 15 of its last 20 road games and six of its last seven played under the lights. It’s more of the same for Baltimore, one of the league’s historically strong defenses. The Ravens have gone Under the total in 14 of the last 18 games when playing as the favorite. Baltimore (7-3, 6-4) is favored by 3.5 on Thursday night.
How swiftly events in the NFL can shift. After a 1-3 start, the Bengals were on a four-game winning streak that propelled them back into the postseason picture. Then, they dropped a 30–27 decision at home to Houston on Sunday on a last-second field goal. Now, Cincinnati sits last place in the AFC North. Any chance of winning the division may depend on Thursday's game against the Ravens.
Even worse, the Bengals are suffering from injuries at a bad time. Trey Hendrickson, an edge rusher, left Sunday's game due to a knee injury, and Sam Hubbard, a defensive end, was sidelined by an ankle injury. Star wideout Ja'Marr Chase missed the game against Houston due to a sore back, and WR Tee Higgins was out too. With the short week, Higgins is doubtful while Hubbard and Hendrickson are questionable. Chase is likely to play.
The Ravens, who have a league-best point differential and have led in the fourth quarter of all ten of their games thus far, are now 7-3 after falling to Cleveland 33-31 on Sunday. For the second time this season, Baltimore lost on the final play of the game after blowing a late 31-17 lead. The Ravens allowed the Browns to score two touchdowns and a field goal on their final three possessions.
Last week, Lamar Jackson and the offense continued to light up the scoreboard, scoring more than thirty points for the fourth straight game. The Ravens have gone Over in two of their last three games at M&T Bank Stadium and three of their last four games overall. That comes after going Under in nine straight home games.
The Bengals may find that going on the road will help them recover from their loss to the Texans. In its last 24 away games, Cincinnati is a scorching 18-6 ATS and 10-1 ATS when playing as a road underdog. Their defense has been a major factor in their success. In their last 20 road games, the Bengals have gone Under in 15 of them.
The Ravens hold the key to victory as they have outscored their opponents 79-16 in the first quarter of the season, demonstrating their ability to build leads. Holding on to those leads has been another story.
Interestingly, the Over has cashed in five of the previous six meetings between these two teams.
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FREE PICK: JOE BURROW UNDER 253.5 PASSING YARDS
Lock this one in before it drops any further. Burrow hasn’t thrown for more than 222 yards in each of his last three games against the Ravens. He threw for 222 in a 27-24 loss to the Ravens in Week 2. Burrow has gone Under this number in 5 of his 9 games this season. Last season, Burrow went Under his passing yards prop in 12 of 17 games. This season, he’s gone Under in 4 of 7 games when this prop was available. Burrow will go up against the NFL’s fourth-best pass defense. The Ravens allow 173.1 yards passing per game and have only allowed more than 200 in three of ten games. The most passing yards Baltimore has allowed all season was 253 and that was to Detroit’s Jared Goff who had to throw nearly every play in the second half since the Lions were down 38-0. Burrow has been hot the last two weeks, but not hot enough to overcome a Ravens defense that has had his number.
