DENVER @ BUFFALO (BUF -7.5, 46.5)
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BRONCOS VS. BILLS 11/13/23
On Monday night, the Denver Broncos (3-5 SU, 2-5-1 ATS) will be looking to win their first game on Monday Night Football in more than six years when they take on the Buffalo Bills (5-4, 3-6). After dominating archrival Kansas City 24-9 in Week 8, the Broncos enjoyed a well-earned bye last week. With a win on Monday night, they would have their first three-game SU win streak since September 2021. The Bills are back at home after suffering a 24–18 loss on Sunday Night Football in Cincinnati the previous weekend. In the last five games, the Bills have only won twice, but both of those two victories have come at home.
Prior to their Week 8 win over the Chiefs, Denver had lost 16 straight to Kansas City. After losing 19 of their previous 24 games, the Broncos appear to have turned the corner as they have won three of their last five. They still need to change their dismal road record, though, as they have gone 5-12-1 ATS and have lost 15 of their last 18 road games since October 2021.
Recent Monday Night Football appearances have not gone any better. Denver has lost seven straight primetime appearances and managed just 16.9 points per game in the process. Since obtaining quarterback Russell Wilson, Denver has lost two straight on MNF. Wilson has thrown just six touchdown passes while losing seven of his last eight primetime appearances.
The Bills' inconsistent season continued with last Sunday’s loss to the Bengals. Josh Allen is reportedly recovered from his recent shoulder injury, but the offense is still a problem. The Bills are only averaging 20.2 points per game and are winless against the spread during their current 2-3 run. Even though the Bills have a solid 9-2 SU record at home in their last 11 games, they have a dismal 4-9 ATS record over their last 13 home dates.
Denver pulling an upset on the road on Monday will depend upon Wilson. He had three touchdown passes in the win over Kansas City. Wilson only passed for 114 yards in the game, but he was aided by a strong running game. RB Javonte Williams had 85 yards rushing and has averaged 83.5 over the Broncos last two games. Denver’s defense has stepped up too. In their last three games, the Broncos have not allowed 20 or more points. Against the Chiefs, Denver had five takeaways and allowed just one touchdown.
For the Bills, it has been a tale of two seasons. During a three-game winning streak in the early part of the year, they averaged 41 points per game. During their current 2-3, Buffalo has averaged just half that amount. Josh Allen has completed over 69% of pass attempts just once in the last five games, despite throwing nine touchdown passes in that time. Additionally, he has thrown a pick in each of those games.
The Bills could use more production from their backfield, just like Denver. Buffalo used six scoring runs to fuel its early-season 3-0 run. During that time, the team averaged over 151 rushing yards per game. James Cook, who averaged 89 rushing yards per game through Week 3, has only averaged 39.8 rushing yards per game since and has not scored a touchdown all season.
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BRONCOS VS BILLS
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FREE PICK: JOSH ALLEN OVER 1.5 PASSING TDS
Here’s the deal. Allen plays his best at home. Denver’s pass defense is suspect. It’s no longer Vic Fangio running the defense and it shows. Denver is 27th against the pass this season, allowing 251.8 yards per game. The Broncos rank 29th in passing TDs allowed per game - 2.0. Allen has thrown at least two touchdowns in each of the Bills five home games this season. He has cleared this prop in 6 of 9 starts this season. One of his misses came last week at Cincy. He’ll make up for that this week at home against a poor Broncos pass D.
