DALLAS @ SAN FRANCISCO (SF -3.5, 45)
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COWBOYS VS. 49ERS 10/8/23
It’s the first big NFC showdown of the 2023 season. Two of the NFL’s best teams will clash on Sunday Night Football in Week 5. The unbeaten San Francisco 49ers (4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS) host the Dallas Cowboys (3-1, 3-1) as home favorites in a rematch of last year’s NFC divisional playoff game. The 49ers won that most recent meeting 19-12. They were also 3.5-point home favorites in that game. Starting quarterback Brock Purdy remained undefeated as a starter with a win over the Cowboys.
Dallas thought it would be unbeaten heading into this one, but they were surprised by the Arizona Cardinals in Week 3. They more than made up for the upset loss by trouncing New England 38-3 last Sunday. The Cowboys covered easily as 6-point favorites.
It was the worst loss ever for Patriots head coach Bill Belichick as the Cowboys dominated on both sides of the ball. In Dallas’ three wins this season, the Cowboys have outscored their opponents 108-13. Dallas and San Francisco share a common opponent - Arizona. San Francisco didn’t allow the Cardinals to work any magic again, beating Arizona 35-16 last week.
The Niners continued to ride RB Christian McCaffrey to an easy victory over the Cardinals. He had three first-half touchdowns and ended up with four scores on the day. He has now scored at least one touchdown in a franchise-record 13 straight games, including the postseason. McCaffrey leads the NFL in rushing with 459 yards. As good as the Cowboys defense is, Dallas ranks 16th in the NFL against the run.
Purdy also improved to 9-0 SU and 7-2 ATS during the regular season as a starter, with the second-year player’s only career loss coming against the Philadelphia Eagles in the 2023 NFC Championship Game. He will be looking to improve to 2-0 versus Dallas in this spot.
Dallas lost running back Tony Pollard late in the first half of the last meeting at San Francisco with an ankle injury, and he has been solid this season since recovering from offseason surgery to repair it. Pollard is playing on the franchise tag this year, and games like this are made to prove whether or not he is really worth the money he will command this coming offseason. Pollard ranks fifth in the league in rushing with 311 yards. With backup Rico Dowdle suffering a hip injury last week and Pollard’s touches limited in the rout, he should be ready to handle a heavy workload.
The Cowboys have been limited at times on offense with quarterback Dak Prescott under center. In the playoff game against San Francisco, this was the case after Pollard checked out of the game. The Niners’ defense was the key and that could be the case again.
Not to be outdone, the Dallas defense can be dominating against opposing offenses too. The problem there is that they will be without cornerback Trevon Diggs who tore an ACL and will miss the rest of the season. Edge pass rusher Micah Parsons is also feeling the effects of a knee injury. He’ll play, but he might not be 100 percent.
The 49ers have won their last 10 games at home and have covered the spread in nine of them. Dallas is 6-3 SU in its last nine against San Francisco. The Cowboys are also 6-3 ATS in their last nine games overall.
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CEEDEE LAMB OVER 65.5 RECEIVING YARDS
Lamb is Dak Prescott’s top target. He’s got 23 catches for 309 yards and one TD so far in 2023. He’s averaging 77 receiving yards per game and has had great success with this particular prop and against San Francisco. Lamb has only faced the Niners once in the regular season. That was back in 2020 when he had 5 catches for 85 yards. Lamb faced Dallas in last year’s playoffs and also cleared this number easily with 117 yards. In fact, Lamb has cleared his receiving yards prop in 16 of his last 22 games. The Niners are actually a middle-of-the-pack (17th) pass defense. Lamb rises up to the level of the competition and hits this prop again.
