PHILADELPHIA @ KANSAS CITY (KC -2.5, 46)
NFL ODDS, NFL PREDICTIONS, NFL PREVIEWS
EAGLES VS. CHIEFS 11/20/23
In the rematch of last year's Super Bowl, the Kansas City Chiefs (7-2 SU, 6-3 ATS), the defending champion, will face the Philadelphia Eagles (8-1, 5-2-2). Two of the NFL's best two teams will square off in Week 11 Monday Night Football with the Chiefs as slight home favorites.
In Super Bowl LVII, the Chiefs defeated the Eagles 38-35 as one-point underdogs, despite Philadelphia quarterback Jalen Hurts' 374 total yards. Patrick Mahomes of Kansas City won the game’s MVP award with three touchdown passes.
Philadelphia's running game was essentially nonexistent in the Super Bowl without Hurts. On 17 carries, Miles Sanders, Kenneth Gainwell, and Boston Scott combined for 45 yards. Sanders is no longer with the Eagles and was replaced by free agency pickup D'Andre Swift.
After joining from the Detroit Lions, Swift had a great start to the season, but he has since cooled off. He has 62 rushing yards or less in four straight games. The team's only loss of the season, a 20-14 road loss to the New York Jets in Week 6, featured his worst performance, 10 carries for 18 yards.
Before the bye week, the Kansas City defense made a big statement by defeating the Miami Dolphins 21-14 in Germany and keeping them scoreless in the first half of a game for the first time since Week 2 of 2021. Mahomes' two touchdown passes in the first half provided the Chiefs' spark, while Bryan Cook's fumble return for a touchdown finished the scoring. Chiefs TE Travis Kelce was held to just 14 receiving yards on three catches, both career lows.
Hurts had a sore knee prior to Philadelphia's bye week, so it would be advantageous if Swift and/or Gainwell could relieve some of the pressure on him in the running game. Hurts' overwork clearly detracts from the Eagles' offensive performance, which was evident in the Super Bowl when a crucial fumble allowed the Chiefs to tie the game at 14-14.
Swift needs to perform better because Kansas City's defense is comparable to New York's, which frustrated him and the Eagles earlier in the season. Remember that the Eagles have gone 0-5 ATS in their previous five games and are 0-6 SU in their previous six as underdogs.
Philadelphia's secondary has been among the worst in the NFL in 2023. Philly does have the best run defense in the league - allowing just 66.3 yards per game on the ground. That means Kansas City must capitalize on the Eagles’ weakness.
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EAGLES VS CHIEFS
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FREE PICK: JALEN HURTS OVER 237.5 PASSING YARDS
Hurts averages 260 passing yards per game and he’s gone Over this number 6 times in 9 games. The three times he didn’t go Over…Week 1 when he didn’t have to in a win over the Patriots, Week 2 when the Eagles ran for 259 against the Vikings, and in the Eagles last game against one of the best pass defenses in the NFL - Dallas. In one regular season game against KC, Hurts has thrown for 387 yards and in last year’s Super Bowl, he went for 304. Prior to the last game against the Cowboys, Hurts had gone Over his passing yards prop in six straight games. He’ll hit it again on Monday night.
