MIAMI @ DENVER (DEN -9, 219)
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After losing the first game of their playoff series, the Miami Heat are in uncharted territory. It’s nothing new for the Denver Nuggets. When the teams meet up again in Denver for Game 2 of the NBA Finals tonight, the Heat will look to tie the series against the Nuggets.
Miami began each series on the road because it was the eighth-seeded team in the Eastern Conference going into the playoffs. But the Heat set the tone for every previous series by winning Game 1. They became the first team in NBA history to win three straight Game 1s on the road. They beat the top-seeded Milwaukee Bucks by 13 points in Game 1 of their opening series and then beat New York and Boston in their Game 1s.
Denver is now 9-0 at home in the playoffs. You must give Nikola Jokic credit for preventing another Miami Game 1 upset. Jokic finished with 27 points, 14 assists, and 10 rebounds in Game 1 to record his sixth triple-double in his last seven games. That was his ninth triple-double of the postseason. .
The Nuggets shot a scorching 50.6 percent from the field (40-of -79) in Game 1. Jamal Murray added 26 points and 10 assists. Denver also significantly outperformed Miami's all-too-short free-throw performance, making 16 of its 20 attempts.
The NBA postseason record for the fewest free throw attempts in a game was set by the Heat in Game 1. Miami attempted just two shots from the free throw line. That won’t cut it in Game 2.
Jimmy Butler had 13 points, seven rebounds, and seven assists. It was Bam Adebayo who led Miami with 26 points, 13 rebounds, and five assists. Neither player went to the foul line the entire game. Miami hasn’t been able to produce much offense since opening the Eastern Conference finals series against Boston by averaging over 120 points per game. In the five games since - they are 1-4 SU - the Heat has averaged 99 points per game.
Denver has now won 11 straight home playoff games going back to last season. They are only 4-3 ATS in their last seven home playoff games when favored by five or more points. Overall, Denver is 5-2 ATS in its last seven games and they have beaten the Heat seven of the last eight times they have played them at home.
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FREE PICK: JIMMY BUTLER UNDER 26.5 POINTS
Butler has been the leader of the Miami offense this postseason, averaging 27.6 points per game. After starting the playoffs on fire, Butler has cooled off somewhat. He was cooler than usual in Game 1 with just 13 points, his lowest total of this postseason. While he’ll likely be more involved tonight, he faces a Denver defense that is allowing just 107.1 points per game. Butler shot 42.9 percent (6-of-14) from the floor in Game 1 and Miami hit just over 40 percent of its shots. The Nuggets have won seven straight and allowed more than 110 points just twice. Butler will find the going very tough tonight.
FREE PICK: Bam Abedayo O 18.5 Points
Bam Abedayo took 25 field goal attempts during Game 1 against Denver which was a career high for the big man as he scored 26 points. I get why this total is still low but given how Denver defended Bam, it's a bad move not to take the over. Denver seemed content with allowing Bam to score on 52 percent of his shots as long as he wasn't drilling threes, which was the case as he shot just one. I'd expect Denver to follow a similar strategy and Bam should be rewarded as he's scored at least 19 in 7 of 9 career games against Jokic.
FREE PICK: Caleb Martin O 1.5 3-Pointers
I'll take slightly worse value here for a bet that should easily hit despite Martin going 1-2 in Game 1. Spoelstra is one of the best adjusters of his era and getting Martin to shoot more three balls will be critical to the Heat's success. Before game 1, he had hit this prop in six straight games and had taken at least three attempts beyond the arc in all 9 games leading up to Game 1. Martin clearly had an off-night in Game 1, but the numbers don't lie.
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