MIAMI @ FLORIDA STATE (FSU -14.5, 51)
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HURRICANES VS. SEMINOLES 11/11/23
Everything can change with a single victory. The Miami Hurricanes will have that chance when they visit the fourth-ranked Florida State Seminoles on Saturday in Tallahassee. A victory over the school's biggest rival would, in a way, salvage Miami's disappointing season, which included an incredible last-second loss to Georgia Tech that would have been a victory had the Hurricanes simply taken a knee with time running out.
The Seminoles (9-0, 7-0 Atlantic Coast Conference) are a strong contender to win their first national championship since 2013 and are favored by two touchdowns. FSU has won each of its last five games by double digits.
Miami (6-3, 2-3) quarterback Tyler Van Dyke appears to have lost confidence, and coach Mario Cristobal hasn't ruled out benching him in favor of true freshman Emory Williams. Van Dyke demonstrated his ability as a quarterback in 2021 by averaging 293 passing yards per contest, tossing 25 touchdown passes against just six interceptions. Earlier in the season, Van Dyke completed 21-of-30 passes for 374 yards and five touchdowns with no interceptions against Texas A&M in a memorable 48-33 victory. Over his last two games though, Van Dyke has only averaged 168 passing yards. He hasn’t thrown a touchdown pass and he has been intercepted five times.
If Cristobal has to go with Williams, that’s not a problem. On October 21, Williams defeated Clemson 28–20 in double overtime in his lone career start. Williams finished the game completing 24-of-33 passes for 151 yards, one touchdown, and one interception.
Miami leads the Florida State series 35–32. The Seminoles, on the other hand, are aiming for their 13th victory in the previous 19 meetings with the Hurricanes. FSU has won the last two straight against the ‘Canes.
It will be an interesting battle between Miami’s corners and FSU’s wide receivers. Key Seminoles receivers Keon Coleman and Johnny Wilson were not present for the team's 24-7 victory over Pitt last week. Wilson, who has missed the last two games for the Seminoles, is back to practicing this week, which is good news for head coach Mike Norvell. Wilson (415) and Coleman (538) are the top two Seminole receivers in terms of yards. Additionally, they have 11 receiving touchdowns overall. Coleman is 6-4 and Wilson is 6-foot-7, so sixth-year quarterback Jordan Travis has two formidable targets.
Due to injuries that sidelined two of Miami's top three cornerbacks last week, the Hurricanes secondary may be weak. Miami lost to North Carolina State 20–6, and also lost both Jaden Davis and Daryl Porter Jr.
Miami ranks fourth in the ACC in terms of scoring defense (20.0 ppg). The Canes have the fifth-best scoring offense (32.1). FSU leads the ACC in both categories. The Seminoles score 39.6 points per game on offense and allow 17 per game on defense.
FSU QB Jordan Travis has gained 190 yards and seven touchdowns on the ground while ranking second in the league in passing yards with 2,469. The Seminoles are 7-0 SU in the last seven home games. They are 10-5 ATS in their last 15 games overall. FSU has covered in three of its last four games, all of which had the Seminoles as a double-digit favorite.
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FREE PICK: OVER 51
The Seminoles have ruled this matchup the last two seasons and this year should be no different. The Canes are in the midst of another disappointing season and know that a win could turn the season around. Miami has an offense that can put up some points. Putting up just 6 like last week isn’t likely again. FSU, on the other hand, is a well-oiled machine on offense, The Noles rank fifth in the country in scoring (41.5 ppg) and scored 31 or more in 8 of their 9 games this season. The Over has cashed in 9 of the Seminoles last 12 games and in 8 of Miami’s last 12. FSU will do most of the work, but Miami will contribute and push this total Over.
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