OLE MISS @ GEORGIA (UGA -11, 58)
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REBELS VS. BULLDOGS 11/11/23
The Georgia Bulldogs (9-0 SU, 2-6-1 ATS) have won 24 straight games, but they’ve only covered in two of their last eight. The Bulldogs failed to cover in last week’s thrilling 30-21 win over Missouri as 14-point favorites. Ole Miss (8-1, 6-2-1) has won five straight games by an average of almost ten points. The Rebels could present Georgia with yet another difficult test on Saturday. Ole Miss has won as an underdog in four of its previous five games.
Last week, the Rebels overcame a second-half deficit to defeat Texas A&M 38–35 thanks to 213 receiving yards from Tre Harris and three touchdown runs from Quinshon Judkins. It was just the third time Ole Miss failed to cover in nine games this season. The Rebels were a 3-point favorite over the Aggies, which resulted in a push.
Although Ole Miss has scored 71 points in its previous two games, the Rebels' offense hasn't been as potent on the road recently. The Rebels have gone Under the total in six straight games as a road underdog, and Ole Miss has only scored 38 points in total in its last two road games against Auburn and Alabama.
Georgia dropped to 2-5 ATS in its last seven games — all as chalk of two touchdowns or more — but needed a couple of late interceptions by its defense to secure a 30-21 victory over Missouri last week. The Bulldogs only managed 21 first downs during the game and were forced to settle for three field goals after being stopped multiple times in the red zone.
All-American linebacker Jamon Dumas-Johnston suffered a forearm fracture last week, which will probably keep him out of action for the rest of the season. Dumas-Johnson has started the last 24 games for the Bulldogs. The Georgia defense has given up at least 20 points in five of its previous six games and will now be without one of its best players.
The Ole Miss offense is ranked 15th in passing yards and 35th in rushing this season. They have great balance and can beat a team in either facet of the game. However, a defense that has played well on the road this season will need to put up yet another outstanding performance. This season, Ole Miss has not let up more than 24 points in an away game. Tulane, Alabama, and Auburn have all averaged just 21.7 points per game against the Rebels.
Georgia QB Carson Beck has been reliable. He’s averaging less than 275 yards passing in his last three games, but he’s thrown nine touchdowns and only two interceptions. The Bulldogs might get All-American TE Brock Bowers back in the lineup.
Georgia has won nine of the last ten against Ole Miss, but the two teams haven’t played since 2016. That was the Rebels lone win in the past ten meetings.
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FREE PICK: OVER 58
This is actually a high total for an SEC game, but not high enough for two explosive offenses. The Bulldogs average 40 points a game. Ole Miss checks in at 38.8. These two haven’t played each other since 2016, so looking at past history doesn’t help much. The Rebels have won five straight and three of those games went Under the total. But, two of the totals were set at 61.5 or higher. Georgia has seen the total go Over in five of its last six games. All-American TE Brock Bowers might even play for the Bulldogs. Ole Miss’s defense isn’t terrible, but they have given up 49 and 35 points in their current five-game win streak. A combination of good offenses and one mediocre defense push this one Over.
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