MLB ODDS, MLB PREDICTIONS, MLB PREVIEWS
THURSDAY, APRIL 18, 2024
RICK BOWE MLB FREE PICKS
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The Coach continues to serve up winning MLB picks. Coach Rick split two free picks yesterday. The Coach’s Best Bets are winning at a 62 percent clip. You can pick up each day’s Best Bet right here at Ylose.com. The Coach has sorted through today’s lean schedule and has come up with these free picks. Let’s get to it.
MIAMI @ CHICAGO CUBS (CHC -152, 7.5)
CUBS ML
The Miami Marlins are terrible. There is no doubt about that. Through 19 games this season, Miami has just four wins. I would have thought the Cubs would be more like a -200 favorite here, but that’s not the case. We’ll take advantage of the favorable odds.
Jameson Taillon gets his first start of the season tonight. He went 8-10 with a 4.84 ERA last year. His projected FIP this season is 4.39 to 4.59. He’s no ace, but he’s definitely an upgrade over Miami starter AJ Puk. The Marlins lefty has struggled to throw strikes this year. Through 10.2 innings, Puk has walked 14 batters. It’s no surprise that he’s 0-3 with a 5.91 ERA.
The Cubs have won 4 of their last 5 games and 8 of their last 9 at home. Miami is 1-3 SU in its last four games. Don’t overthink this one. Cubs ML.
MIAMI @ CHICAGO CUBS (CHC -152, 7.5)
UNDER 7.5
While we’re on the subject, the Marlins-Cubs game at Wrigley Field has some value on tonight’s total. With some wind and light rain in the forecast, there is a play here on the Under. There is wind predicted tonight in the 7 to 8 mph range and that wind will be blowing in toward home plate from left-center field.
Now, in games at Wrigley Field with winds of least 5 mph blowing in toward home plate, the Under has cashed at 60 percent rate since 2005. The total has gone Under in 6 of the last 9 Marlins games. Miami ranks 23rd or worse in runs scored per game, batting average, on-base percentage, and OPS.
The Cubs, who rank fourth in MLB in scoring, have actually seen the total go Under in 5 of their last 6 games. We’ll take the weather to keep this a low-scoring game tonight and push the total Under 7.5.
ARIZONA @ SAN FRANCISCO (SF -165, 8)
F5 UNDER 4.5
This one is all about the pitching matchup. Ryne Nelson of Arizona is 1-2 with a 5.27 ERA, but he is coming off his best performance of the season in his last start. Nelson allowed just 1 ER in 6 IP to record a win over the St. Louis Cardinals. More importantly, Nelson is 1-0 with a very respectable 3.44 ERA in three career starts against the Giants.
Logan Webb will start for the Giants. He is 1-1 this year with a 3.80 ERA. He also had his best outing in his last start. Webb pitched 7 innings and allowed a single earned run in picking up a victory over Tampa Bay. Where Webb excels is in pitching at home.
In 336.2 career innings at Oracle Park, Webb has an ERA of 2.75. Last year at home, he pitched to a 2.26 ERA. In 27 innings against Arizona last season, Webb recorded two victories and an ERA of 3.00. Given the Giants offensive struggles and the dominance of Webb at home, I like these two pitchers to duke it out in the first half of a low-scoring game.
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