MLB ODDS, MLB PREDICTIONS, MLB PREVIEWS
TUESDAY, MAY 7, 2024
RICK BOWE MLB FREE PICKS
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All 30 MLB teams are back in action today. Coach Rick has got his Daily Best Bet ready to go. The Coach's Best Bets are 6-3 over the last nine days. Before you pick up another winner today, let's dive into today's Quick Picks.
ARIZONA @ CINCINNATI (ARI -130, 9)
OVER 9
Zac Gallen is back for another road start. If you have followed Coach Rick, you know that the Coach has pointed out how Gallen struggles away from home. In three road starts this season, Gallen is 0-2 with a 6.60 ERA. Ouch! His last two starts were both on the road and he gave up a combined 8 earned runs. For the season, Gallen is 3-2 with a 3.38 ERA.
While there is some value on Cincinnati as a home underdog here, Coach Rick likes the Over. Opposite Gallen will be Cincy's Frankie Montas. He's 2-2 with a 4.19 ERA and his FIP is 5.26. Montas hasn't pitched more than two innings since April 15. His velocity is way down and he has the potential to blow up today.
The other major factor that plays in to the Over tonight is the Great American Ballpark. It ranks 4th in ballpack factor, which is the scientific way of saying teams score more runs at GAB than other ballparks in MLB. This number is at 9 for a reason. Back the Over.
MILWAUKEE @ KANSAS CITY (KC -130, 8.5)
UNDER 8.5
This is a great starting pitching matchup. Colin Rea starts for the Brewers against Kansas City's Seth Lugo. Rea is 3-0 so far and has a 2.67 ERA. Lugo has been even better. He's got a 5-1 record and the third-best ERA in the majors at 1.60.
Lugo has allowed just eight earned runs the entire season. That's through eight starts. In only one of those starts did he allow more than two earned runs. Rea has been equally as good. He's allowed on 10 earned runs across his six starts in 2024.
Both of these lineups have been right around the league average in most hitting stats over the last ten days. The other factor here is location. Unlike the Great American Ballpark, Kauffman Stadium is more conducive to Unders. Thirteen of the 20 Royals' home games have gone Under this season. The Under has hit 22 times in the Royals 35 games this season and the Under is 4-1 in the Brewers last five.
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