Real Madrid vs Bayern Munich, Champions League, 5/8/2024
Real Madrid vs Bayern Munich- Free Pick
Real Madrid ML at -110 20* play
Bayern's defensive weaknesses were evident again over the weekend. Although it was a less significant match, it still mattered; Tuchel aimed to keep the team's rhythm despite rotating players. He even fielded Kane, Neuer, Kimmich, Dier, Guerreiro, Kim, Davies, and Gnabry in the starting lineup.
Unfortunately, Bayern lost Guerreiro, who has been in excellent form lately, so they might have to rely on the error-prone Alphonso Davies at left-back for this match, or perhaps Bayern will prefer Mazroui over the struggling Canadian.
Bayern looked a massive threat in the opening 20 minutes against Real Madrid in the 1st leg, but the Spanish side weathered the storm well allowing just 0.82 non-penalty xGA (expected goals against) in the match.
Real Madrid respected Bayern Munich in the first leg, adopting a cautious approach and capitalising on their opportunities. I anticipate that Rodrygo, Vini Jr, and Bellingham will once again dismantle the Bayern backline. If the game becomes stretched, turn could get ugly for the travelling Germans.
De Ligt has returned to training after his knee injury and is anticipated to start at centre-back alongside Eric Dier. This is a positive for Bayern, yet I believe De Ligt may not be at full capacity, given he's being rushed back from his injury. As noted earlier, Dier poses a risk, and Bayern's average goals conceded tend to rise with him on the pitch.
Real Madrid's chance creation at home in the Champions League has been nothing short of exceptional. From their previous 5 games here they have scored 2.4, generated 2.58xG, and gotten off 17.6 attempts per game.
We also can't overlook the fact that they have scored at least three goals in four of their last five matches (in all competitions) at home, a feat that includes games against Manchester City and Barcelona.
Across all competitions at the Bernabeu this season, Real Madrid has outscored their opponents by an average of 2.67 to 0.79.
Pick: Real Madrid ML at -110 (20* play)
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