YAIR RODRIGUEZ vs. ALEXANDER VOLKANOVSKI (VOLK -370)
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RODRIGUEZ vs. VOLKANOVSKI 7/8/23
In the main event at UFC 290, Yair Rodriguez and Alexander Volkanovski will square off for the featherweight championship, while Brandon Moreno and Alexandre Pantoja will battle it out for the flyweight crown in a co-headlining event.
In his last fight, Volkanovski (25-2) moved up to lightweight to take on Islam Makhachev, but he lost a close decision after five rounds. He had a 12-0 record in the UFC prior to the defeat. At featherweight, he hasn't yet lost.
Rodriguez (15-3-0-1) lost a five-round decision to Max Holloway in 2021, but he went on to beat Josh Emmett (R2 Submission) earlier this year and Brian Ortega (R1 TKO) in 2022. Rodriguez averages 4.78 strikes landed per minute and 4.03 strikes against per minute. He's powerful, explosive, and there's a chance he could score a knockout.
Volkanovski has only ever been knocked out once, and that was back in 2013 while he was competing in the Australian Fighting League (AFC). Volkanovski's averages over a 15-minute period are 6.35 SLpM, 3.40 SApM, and 1.52 takedowns. He hasn't used his wrestling as much lately, but he should early on to wear down Rodriguez's cardiovascular system.
Rodriguez was given the opportunity to compete against Josh Emmett for the interim belt while Volkanovski was away trying to dominate the lightweight division. Rodriguez won that interim belt and secured a matchup with Volkanovski by submitting with a triangle choke in the second round.
Although Volkanovski isn't particularly good at finishing moves, he can overwhelm opponents, as he did with The Korean Zombie, Chan Sung Jung. Rodriguez is the better "pure finisher" of the two and is flashy and dangerous.
Although Rodriguez's cardio appears to have improved in recent fights, he may have a difficult time going the distance with a fighter like Volkanovski. He’s a guy who can push the pace. Volkanovski is a powerful fighter with very good wrestling skills. It makes for an interesting fight to cap off UFC 290.
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FREE PICK: OVER 4.5 ROUNDS
Neither fighter has lost in their last seven fights. Volkanovski has won 8 straight. Rodriguez has won 7 in a row. Volkanovski will likely land more strikes, but Rodriguez will land his fair share. Some question Rodriguez’s ability to go the distance with Volkanovski. That’s the key. For Rodriguez to pull the upset, he’ll either have to land a knockout blow early or he’ll have to go toe-to-toe with his opponent for the duration. With the featherweight title on the line, Rodriguez isn’t going to let this opportunity slip away. That said, he might not win, but he’ll last more than 4.5 rounds.