Barcelona vs PSG Free Pick, UEFA Champions League, 4/16/2024
Barcelona vs PSG - Free Pick
Barcelona Over 1.5 Team Total Goals at -135 (3 units)
Barcelona are fresh from a commanding performance at Parc des Princes, a venue that’s notoriously difficult to conquer, particularly in European competitions. Given PSG’s defensive inconsistencies and their urgency to chase the game, I anticipate Barcelona exploiting them on the counter. Barcelona have consistently found the back of the net this season, scoring two or more goals in all four of their Champions League home games. They trounced Antwerp 5-0, edged out Shakhtar Donetsk 2-1, overcame Porto 2-1, and defeated Napoli 3-1.
The team news for Barcelona looks promising, with Gavi being the sole significant absentee. The likely starting XI should be: Ter Stegen, Cancelo, Araujo, Cubarsi, Koundé, De Jong, Gundogan, Fermin, Raphinha, Yamal, Lewandowski. Barcelona’s recent victory away at Cadiz marks their eighth win in the last nine matches, boosting their confidence immensely ahead of this encounter. Despite modest expectations this season, Barcelona is now on the cusp of reaching the Champions League semi-finals.
Although Barcelona is a club of immense stature, it seems that the pressure is heavier on PSG to secure a result in this match, which could work in Barcelona’s favour. PSG’s historical challenges in advancing past this stage of the competition are well-documented, with eliminations in either the round of 16 or the quarter-finals in 10 of the last 11 Champions League campaigns, excluding their final appearance during the COVID-19 impacted 2019/20 season.
Luis Enrique has certainly enhanced PSG’s depth and dynamics; however, their goalkeeper situation remains a concern. Despite my admiration for Donnarumma, his performance this season has been notably shaky. Their defensive woes, especially in away games, are highlighted by a staggering 1.91 expected goals against per 90 minutes in both their Champions League and Ligue 1 outings.
Final thought: This clash has the ingredients of a classic encounter, but I foresee Barcelona prevailing once again, likely scoring at least two goals against a desperate PSG.
Pick: Barcelona Over 1.5 Team Total Goals at -135 (3 units)
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