LA LAKERS @ GOLDEN STATE (GSW -7, 226)
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LAKERS vs. WARRIORS 5/10/23
The Golden State Warriors have been here before. Twice before, the Warriors have been down 3-1 in a playoff series. Tonight, they attempt to avoid elimination in Game 5 of their Western Conference semifinal series against the Los Angeles Lakers.
The Lakers snatched a 104-101 home victory in Game 4 on Monday to go up 3-1 in the best-of-seven series. The Lakers’ Austin Reaves and Lonnie Walker IV gave LeBron James and Anthony Davis the kind of supporting cast Stephen Curry didn't get from his more highly regarded teammates. The Lakers' second consecutive victory moved them closer than ever to their first trip to the Western Finals since 2020, when LA won the NBA title in the COVID bubble season.
Reaves, who had 21 points on Monday, significantly outperformed Klay Thompson, who scored just nine. Walker saved all 15 of his points for a crucial fourth quarter that helped the Lakers take the lead. The Warriors were in a must-win situation in Game 7 of their first-round playoff series with Sacramento. Stephen Curry responded with 50 points and the Warriors won easily 120-100.
Since Kerr took over as coach in 2015, the Warriors have defeated Western Conference playoff opponents 19 times in a row. However, twice in the past seven years, they have fallen behind 3-1. In 2016, they overcame Kevin Durant's 40 points to defeat Oklahoma City at home in Game 5. That started a run of three straight wins that propelled them to the NBA Finals.
Three years later, they needed a victory in Game 5 at Toronto to stay alive in the NBA Finals. They got that win too, thanks to Curry's 31 points. The Warriors would lose the series though after Thompson suffered a knee injury in Game 6. Curry, Thompson, and Draymond Green have all been here before.
The teams split the opening two games in San Francisco, giving the Lakers a chance to go up 3-1 at home by winning two straight. The seventh-seeded Lakers stole the home-court advantage in their first-round series by defeating the Memphis Grizzlies 117-112 in Game 1.
Thompson, a native of the Los Angeles area, made a big impact in Game 2, scoring 30 points in a performance that helped his team win 127-100. In Los Angeles, Thompson was unable to replicate that performance. In the two games in LA, Thompson totaled just 24 points while only hitting 8-of-25 shots.
With the Game 4 win, the Lakers are now 6-1 SU and ATS in their last seven games against Golden State. The Lakers defense has risen to the occasion in each of the last two games. LA allowed the Warriors just 101 and 97 points in Games 3 and 4. Both of those games went Under the total. The Under has now cashed a winner in six of the Lakers last nine games. The Over is 8-2 in the Lakers last 10 road games and the Lakers O/U record on the road for the season is 28-18.
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Warriors vs Lakers Under 226
The change of scenery means jack squat. Since the All-Star break, the Lakers D has the second-best defensive rating in the NBA. Allowed 101 and 97 last two games. Add in the other win and the Lakers are giving up 103.3 in the three Ws over the Dubs. GSW plays fast. Lakers D negates that. Plus, every possession matters when you’re facing elimination. Six of the last eight Lakers games and four of the last six Warriors games have gone Under the total.
FREE PICK: KLAY THOMPSON 25+ POINTS
Thompson has been a huge disappointment over the last two games - 24 combined points and he shot 35% and 27% in Games 3 and 4. A return home is just what Thompson needs. He put up 25 and 30 at home in Games 1 and 2. In three of his last four home playoff games, Thompson has hit this prop. Despite his shooting slump, Thompson is still hitting five three-pointers per game and shooting 44.4 percent from downtown. Back at home in a battle to stay alive in the playoffs, Thompson reverts back to Game 1/2 Klay.
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