DENVER @ MIAMI (DEN -4.5, 215.5)
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NUGGETS VS. HEAT 3/13/24
Tonight, the Miami Heat (35-29, 31-32-1 ATS) and the Denver Nuggets (45-20, 29-35-1 ATS) square off in South Beach. On Monday, the Nuggets defeated the Raptors at home. The Wizards handed the Heat a home defeat. The Nuggets defeated the Heat 103-97 at home last month.
This is the first game of a four-game road trip for Denver. The Nugget’s dominating defense has helped them win nine of their last ten games. The Nuggets defeated the Jazz on Saturday and prior to beating the Raptors 125-119 at home on Monday. Denver is third in the Western Conference and only 0.5 games behind Oklahoma City at the top of the division. Denver has covered three of its last five games.
Nikola Jokic has scored more than 30 points in three of his previous five games. The 29-year-old center scored 35 points on Tuesday, bringing his average of 26.2 points per game and 12.3 rebounds. In the last meeting with the Heat, Jokic scored 18 points. Jamal Murray continues to deliver. In four of his last five games, he has scored 20 points or more. He is averaging 21.2 points per game. In the victory on Monday, Michael Porter Jr. scored 19 points, which is just above his 16.6 points per game average.
In their last five road games, Denver is 3-2 SU and, as mentioned, has covered the spread in three of those contests. That includes wins over Golden State and Milwaukee. Denver is averaging 115 points per game this season, good for 15th in the NBA, and has scored at least 124 points in three of their last five games. The defense is solid, allowing 110.7 points per game on average. That ranks seventh.
Miami trails the Orlando Magic by 1.5 games in the race for the Southeast Division crown. The Heat has now lost three straight games, including Friday's road loss to the Thunder. The team was heavily favored by 11.5 points going into Sunday's depressing 110-108 home loss against the Wizards. Making matters worse for bettors, the Heat have covered just once in their last five games.
Jimmy Butler has scored at least 20 points in four of his previous five games. He’s averaging 21.7 points per game and 5.5 rebounds per game. On Sunday, he had 23 points against the Wizards. Bam Adebayo has not been playing well lately. In two of his last three games, he has shot less than 40%. He’s having a strong season, averaging 19.9 points and 10 rebounds per game.
Miami has covered twice in its last five home games. Miami is ranked 28th in the league in scoring with an average of 110.5 points per game. The defense is outstanding, holding opponents to 109.9 points. That ranks fifth in the NBA.
Denver has owned Miami winning 12 of the last 13 games. That includes last year’s NBA Finals. Denver is also 12-4 ATS in the last 16 against the Heat and 7-3 ATS in their last ten games overall. Miami is 0-6 ATS in its last six games when hosting the Nuggets.
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FREE PICK: HEAT +3.5
