CBB ODDS, CBB PREDICTIONS, CBB PREVIEWS
SATURDAY, APRIL 6, 2024
RICK BOWE CBB FREE PICKS
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The Coach is back for today’s Final Four after a solid week of warmups with the NIT. All of Coach Rick’s Quick Picks have cashed winners this week. The Coach’s Best Bet is also on a 4-0 run and we’re looking for another big winner tonight. Two games tonight. Two Quick Picks. One Best Bet. Lots of wins! Here are tonight’s free picks.
NC STATE vs. PURDUE (PUR -9, 146.5)
UNDER 146.5
Both of these teams will run their offenses through the post. Purdue, of course, has two-time national player of the year Zach Edey at 7-foot-4 on the inside. NC State has DJ Burns at 6-9 and 275 pounds operating in the paint. Both teams play at moderate tempos. NC State ranks 116th in average offensive possession length. Purdue ranks 234th.
The point is that both offenses eat up a lot of clock and that is going to help push tonight’s total Under 146.5. The NC State defense has been outstanding in the tournament thus far. The Wolfpack have held three of their four March Madness opponents to 67 points or less. Purdue presents a challenge as they are a Top 10 scoring team averaging 83.8 points per game.
However, since March 2, Purdue has only gone over 80 points once. That was against Utah State in the tournament’s first weekend. The Under has cashed in three of Purdue’s four tournament games. The Under is 2-1-1 in NC State’s tournament games and this comes after both teams trended Over all season long - NC State O/U 22-16-2, Purdue O/U 23-14.
Tonight’s game should be a war in the post where the two teams use up the clock on most of their possessions. Tonight’s grinding pace will push this total Under 146.5
ALABAMA vs. UCONN (UCONN -11.5, 160.5)
UCONN -11.5
It’s a big number and Coach Rick is not a fan of double-digit spread. But, this is UConn. The Huskies cover here and there are plenty of reasons why. It begins with Alabama playing a little bit above its head. The Tide is shooting 42 percent from three-point range. They are a very good three-point shooting team - 21st in the nation at 37.1 percent - but continuing to hit over 40 percent is not sustainable.
The more ridiculous thing is that Alabama’s NCAA tournament opponents are shooting just 28 percent from three…and the Crimson Tide is one of the worst defenses in college basketball. Plus, UConn hasn’t shot all that well from downtown and they are still kicking everyone’s ass. The Huskies went 3-for-22 from three against Northwestern and still beat the Wildcats by 27.
UConn shot 3-of-17 from behind the arc against Illinois and beat the Illni by 25. With the threes not falling, the Huskies have jammed the ball into the paint and have averaged 53.5 paint points per game in the tourney. Alabama will have no answer for that, nor will they have an answer if UConn starts draining threes.
UConn is 26-6 ATS in the NCAA tournament since 2009. They have covered 14 of those games by double-digit margins. The Huskies are 10- ATS in their last 11 games and have covered seven double-digit spreads, including three in this year’s tournament. Speaking of this year’s tournament, teams favored by 8 or more points are 18-5 ATS. No question here. UConn wins and covers…again.
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