Real Madrid vs Barcelona, La Liga, 4/21/2024
Real Madrid vs Barcelona - Free Pick
Under 3.5 Total Goals at -160 (3 units)
Both clubs are coming off gruelling midweek Champions League so we could see some fatigue in this one. Real Madrid played 130 minutes in total + penalties against Man City while PSG played for about an hour with 10 men against PSG
Real Madrid are currently 8 points clear of Barcelona with most models giving them around a 99% chance to win the league this season so they have absolutely not reason to push the pace in this game. Avoiding defeat will be their primary objective.
When these two last met in the league, Real Madrid won 2-1 thanks to two goals from Jude Bellingham but what the underlying data shows is that good goal scoring chances were few and far between in that game with a total xG 2.29
Let's also talk about Real Madrid's defensive numbers at the Bernabéu. This season in La Liga they have allowed just 0.47 goals per 90 and have only conceded more than 1 goal on 1 occasion
Barcelona have also been impressive with 6 consecutive clean sheets in the league
Barcelona will have Araujo and Kounde fit which should mean they can keep Vinicius Jr quiet as they have the pace to match the Brazilian
In Barcelona's last 10 games against Top 6 opponents we've seen pretty low scoring games, from their last 10 we have an average of just 2.2 goals per game.
The same is true for Real Madrid when facing Spain's elite with just 2.3 goals per game in their last 10.
Pick: Under 3.5 Total Goals at -160 (3 units)
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