
Arsenal vs Man City - Sunday
Arsenal Over 1.5 Team Total Goals at -120 20*
Manchester City have managed to grind out some decent results lately, but they still don’t pass the eye test. Their midfield continues to get overrun, and their defensive line is consistently exposed, leading to major chances for opponents week after week.
Defensively, City’s numbers paint a worrying picture. They rank 20th in the league for the quality of chances conceded and 19th for counter-attack chances allowed per 90 minutes—a glaring weakness against a fast, direct Arsenal side.
In their last high-profile away match, City shipped four goals against PSG. Prior to that, they conceded at least two goals in away fixtures against Juventus, Sporting, Liverpool, Brighton, Bournemouth, and Spurs—showing a clear vulnerability when facing elite or aggressive attacking teams.
Team News & Tactical Weaknesses
City will also be dealing with some key absences:
New signing Khusanov had a nightmare debut and is unlikely to be risked.
Ake and Dias remain sidelined, further weakening their backline.
Kyle Walker has been sold to AC Milan, removing a crucial defensive option.
Rodri, the Ballon d’Or winner, is still out long-term, a major blow to City’s midfield stability.
Another potential weak link is Matheus Nunes, who is expected to start at right-back (DR). City have conceded 1.65 goals per game when he has started there, and with Arsenal’s dynamic wingers, this could be an area Arsenal will look to exploit.
Arsenal’s Attacking Edge
Unlike City, Arsenal had the luxury of rotating players in their meaningless midweek fixture against Girona, while City were forced to field a full-strength XI against Club Brugge just to scrape through to the play-offs. Expect Arsenal to be fresher and sharper physically.
At home, the Gunners have been clinical:
2.00 goals per game at the Emirates this season.
2.55 expected goals (xG) per 90, suggesting their attack is generating even more chances than their actual goal tally reflects.
Nearly 17 shots per game, underlining their attacking intent.
Perhaps most importantly, Arsenal tend to raise their game against top sides. In their last 10 home matches against top-half opposition, they have averaged 2.5 goals per game. With Liverpool currently nine points ahead, this is a must-win for Arsenal if they want to stay in the title race.
Final Thoughts
With City’s defensive frailties, Arsenal’s home dominance, and the physical advantage on Arsenal’s side, backing Arsenal to score at least two goals or a win for the Gunners looks like strong value here.
Ylose Soccer expert Neil Mac has been delivering profits month on month with his European Soccer expertise.. Follow all his plays from the Premier League, Bundesliga, La Liga, Ligue 1 Serie A, Champions League, Europa League and Internationals with his weekly package below