Arsenal vs Man Utd, FA Cup, Free Soccer Picks, Predictions 01/12/25
- Neil Mac
- Jan 11
- 2 min read
Arsenal vs Manchester United- Sunday
Same Game Parlay: Arsenal to win and Gabriel Magalhães Over 0.5 Shots
SGP: Arsenal to Win + Gabriel Magalhães Over 0.5 Shots at +140 (10)*
Arsenal’s elite set-piece prowess is the big angle here. Manchester United remain vulnerable defending dead-ball situations, so I expect the Gunners to find success again.
Man Utd’s league record against Top 6 sides is concerning: they’ve won just 2 of their last 10 and lost their last 4 visits to the Emirates, conceding at least 2 goals in each of those outings.
Altay Bayindir likely starting in goal for Man Utd is another worry. In his four appearances in the Carabao and FA Cup, he’s conceded 8 goals from 19 shots faced—far from reassuring for United supporters.
Arsenal will still be without Bukayo Saka, which is a blow, but he appears to be the only major absentee.
Man Utd might set up defensively (like Newcastle did against Arsenal), but as we saw in that match, the Gunners had no trouble creating high-quality chances. They generated 4.4 xG with 23 attempts, repeatedly threatening in the box.
These sides met last month and it wasn’t much of a contest: Arsenal won 2-0 (xG 3.39–0.48), with Man Utd offering little going forward.
Across all competitions, Arsenal boast an xG supremacy of nearly +2.00, which is almost unheard of. Right now, they might well be the best club side in world football.
I’ve added Gabriel Magalhães Over 0.5 Shots to the SGP because of Arsenal’s dominance from set-pieces and United’s issues defending them. He’s a physical threat in the box and usually pops up with at least one attempt in big games.
If you’re after a bigger price, you could combine an Arsenal win with a Gabriel Magalhães goal, which is around +1200.
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