Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid, UCL, Free Soccer Picks, Predictions 03/12/25
- Neil Mac
- Mar 12
- 2 min read
Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid
Pick: Atletico Madrid Tie no Bet / Atletico +0 Spread
(For those unfamiliar, this bet wins if Atletico Madrid triumph. If the match ends in a draw after full-time, the stake is refunded. Only a Real Madrid win results in a loss.)
Atletico Madrid's Home Dominance in UCL Knockouts: Atletico haven’t lost a Champions League knockout game at home since 1997—a staggering record that underscores just how formidable they are at the Wanda Metropolitano on big European nights.
Atletico’s Mentality & History of Comebacks: They are no strangers to overturning first-leg deficits. Expect a fired-up Atletico, fully believing they can progress.
Minimal Domestic Gap in xG Metrics: Despite Real Madrid's dominance in La Liga, the underlying numbers show a much closer contest.
Real Madrid’s xG difference per 90: +0.92
Atletico Madrid’s xG difference per 90: +0.70
The margins are tight, indicating Atletico are more than capable of matching them.
Real Madrid’s Fitness & Injury Concerns: Bellingham, Mbappé, and Courtois are expected to start, but all are reportedly carrying injuries. This could limit their effectiveness in a high-intensity clash.
Real Madrid’s Poor Away Form vs Top Sides: Their record in La Liga away matches against top-six teams has been underwhelming—just 3 wins in their last 10.
Defensive Strength: Atletico’s Home Performance Against Real
When they met at the Wanda in September, Atletico restricted Real Madrid to just one shot inside their box, which they were fortunate to score from in a 1-1 draw.
In the first leg of this tie, Atletico’s defense was immense, allowing Real Madrid just 19 touches in their penalty area. With Real now playing away and protecting a lead, expect even fewer chances for them.
Tactical Expectation: Intense, Aggressive Atletico: Atletico Madrid will go all out, pressing aggressively and ensuring this remains a physical, high-pressure match. At the very least, expect them to avoid defeat.
Verdict: Atletico Madrid Tie No Bet (+0) offers strong value given their home strength, Real Madrid’s injury concerns, and recent struggles in tough away fixtures.
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