Bills vs Falcons Free Pick, NFL Free Picks, NFL Predictions 10/13/25
- J.A. Cavalier
- Oct 13
- 3 min read
BUFFALO @ ATLANTA (BUF -3.5, 49.5)
NFL ODDS, NFL PREDICTIONS, NFL PREVIEWS
BILLS @ FALCONS 10/13/25
The Buffalo Bills will try to avoid a rare losing streak against the host Atlanta Falcons in primetime tonight after suffering one of the biggest early-season upsets in the NFL. After the Eagles' beat the Denver Broncos last Sunday, Buffalo (4-1) was the last team without a loss for a few hours. The Bills were then eliminated from the unbeaten list after losing to the New England Patriots 23–20 at home.
Buffalo's most recent losing run was more than a year ago, and things won't get any easier on Monday. The Atlanta team the Bills play boasts a promising backfield tandem in quarterback Michael Penix Jr. and running back Bijan Robinson, and they lead the NFL in total defense (244 yards per game).
"(Robinson) looks like he's going to be a real handful," stated Sean McDermott, the head coach of Buffalo. "Very explosive. Excellent football player who is very difficult to stop. He appears to have a very promising future.... (Penix) is extremely familiar with the offense. He has a fantastic running game to go along with his talent and skills, and he is very specific in how he manages their offense."
Josh Allen, the quarterback for the Bills, has an 80-35 career record as a starter and hasn't become used to losing, but following last week's rarity, the defending NFL MVP knew what to say to his team.
"The message after a loss is continuing to trust our process, not to be focused so much on the results," Allen stated. "It goes without saying that we didn't play as well as we would have liked to last week. Thankfully, we have another week. We have the opportunity to play Monday night in Atlanta against a team that is playing excellent football but just finished a bye. It's a really fun atmosphere. We have the chance to move forward with this opportunity.
Allen will play his first game in Atlanta in over seven seasons on Monday. Along with the Chicago Bears and Carolina Panthers, the Falcons are one of three teams he has only faced once. Atlanta (2-2) will be hoping for a historic win in its first Monday Night Football home game in seven years after taking a 14-day break. It was October 22, 2018 when the Falcons defeated the New York Giants 23–20.
For a number of years, the Falcons' defense has been far from their strong suit, but under Jeff Ulbrich, the team's fourth defensive coordinator in as many years, Atlanta's identity has changed over the course of four games. The defense's greatest challenge will be attempting to slow Buffalo's Allen, a three-time Pro Bowl selection. In five games, Allen has rushed 40 times for 212 yards and three touchdowns and passed for 1,217 yards and nine touchdowns with two interceptions.
Cornerback A.J. Terrell is expected to make his first appearance since leaving the Falcons' Week 2 victory over the Minnesota Vikings due to a hamstring injury. On Saturday, he participated fully in practice. Darnell Mooney, a wide receiver with a hamstring injury, was ruled out of tonight’s game. LaCale London (triceps) and cornerback Clark Phillips III (triceps/illness) were also ruled out for Atlanta.
On Saturday, Buffalo placed rookie defensive tackle T.J. Sanders (knee) and safety Damar Hamlin (pectoral) on injured reserve. Although he was fortunate to avoid injury, star linebacker Matt Milano (pectoral) is still not expected to play on Monday. Due to their limited practice participation throughout the week, wide receiver Curtis Samuel (neck/ribs) and tight end Dalton Kincaid (oblique) are considered questionable.
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BIJAN ROBINSON UNDER 73.5 RUSHING YARDS
Yes, Robinson averages 78.5 yards rushing per game. Yes, the Buffalo Bills rank 28th in run defense allowing over 145 yards per game. And, despite those facts, Robinson is projected to rush for fewer than 70 yards. This is the lowest that his rushing yards prop has been all season. At some point, the Bills, who are an elite defense, will stop giving up chunk rushing plays. They are coming into tonight off a loss and you can bet they want to prove last week was a fluke.
