Bills vs Texans Free Pick, NFL Free Picks, NFL Predictions 11/20/25
- J.A. Cavalier
- 5 hours ago
- 3 min read
BUFFALO @ HOUSTON (BUF -6, 43.5)
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BILLS @ TEXANS 11/20/25
Josh Allen, the reigning NFL MVP, may have elected to lead the Buffalo Bills by himself at this stage in the season. When the Bills travel to the Houston Texans tonight, Allen hopes to be at his best after an incredible performance last week.
In the 44-32 victory over the visiting Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday, Allen rushed for three touchdowns and passed for three more. It was just the third time in NFL history to have three passing touchdowns and three rushing touchdowns in the same game.
Allen has done it twice, the first time during a 44-42 loss to the Los Angeles Rams in December of last year. It was also done by Cleveland Browns Hall of Famer Otto Graham in the 1954 NFL championship game.
Allen and Cam Newton share the all-time quarterback regular-season record with 75 career rushing touchdowns. Allen leads the NFL in rushing touchdowns with ten this season. Against Tampa Bay, Allen led Buffalo (7-3) to a season-high point total while passing for 317 yards. The Bills scored at least 40 points for the third time.
With the Texans (5-5) having won three of their last four games, Allen (2,456 passing yards, 18 touchdowns) is aiming to do well against them. In addition, Buffalo has won three of its last four games.
"We got a game Thursday night, so it's a completely different team that we're facing, completely different defense," Allen explained. "Not sure what the game plan is going to look like, but we got to start fast (against Houston)."
Against the Texans, Allen won't have access to three of his targets. In addition to receivers Curtis Samuel (elbow/neck) and Mecole Hardman Jr. (calf), tight end Dalton Kincaid (hamstring) is sidelined for the second consecutive game. Additionally, after arriving late to a team meeting on Friday, receiver Keon Coleman was placed on the inactive list versus the Buccaneers as a disciplinary action. We don't know his status.
C.J. Stroud, the quarterback for the Texans, will miss his third consecutive game due to a concussion. He didn't pass the protocol, but he did take part in practice on Tuesday. For the third straight game, Jalen Pitre was again ruled out due to a concussion. He and cornerback Derek Stingley Jr. are tied for the team lead in interceptions.
Stroud will be replaced by Davis Mills for the third week in a row. Mills is just doing his job, according to Houston head coach DeMeco Ryans. Since Stroud's injury during the Denver Broncos' 18–15 loss, Mills has completed 70 of 116 passes (60.3%) for 703 yards, three touchdowns, and one interception in more than two games. In last weekend's 16–13 victory over the Tennessee Titans on the road, Mills passed for 274 yards and one score.
The Texans boast a strong all-around defense, led by defensive ends Will Anderson Jr. (eight sacks) and Danielle Hunter (nine). Houston is third in the NFL in terms of rushing defense (87.1), while it leads in both scoring defense (16.3 points per game) and total defense (258.1 yards per game).
Jamal Hill, a star on special teams and a linebacker for Houston, was ruled out Wednesday due to hamstring strains that prevented him from practicing all week.
Ka'imi Fairbairn's 59-yard field goal as time ran out gave the Texans a 23–20 victory over the Bills at home last season.
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GAME TOTAL UNDER 43.5
It’s a short turnaround and the Bills are missing some key pieces on offense. Don’t expect another 44-point effort from Buffalo tonight. Remember, they are playing the No. 1 scoring defense in the NFL. Houston allows 16.3 points per game. The Texans have won 3 of their last 4 games and held the 3 losers to fewer than 20 points. The Bills defense doesn’t stop the run, but they do get after the QB - 4th in QB pressure rate, 5th in sack rate. That will make it difficult for Davis Mills and Houston. The Texans only score 22 points a game and 3 of their last 4 games have gone Under the total. Keep in mind, primetime Unders over the past few years are cashing at nearly 58 percent.