Bolivia vs Suriname — Thursday World Cup
- Neil Mac
- 4 hours ago
- 2 min read
Bet: Bolivia ML at +120
Stake: 20* (2 units)
I like Bolivia here. The altitude advantage is drastically reduced but worth noting this game will be played in Monterrey, which at 1,770 ft is far from sea level - so they’re not losing all of that edge
Bolivia have a lot more going for them beyond altitude. They have a settled squad that has played together extensively under a coach who has been at the helm since mid-2024
Bolivia regularly test their mettle against the best teams in the Americas - Brazil, Colombia, Argentina, Uruguay - and that experience at the highest level matters
They also took on a similar-level CONCACAF opponent to warm up, beating Trinidad and Tobago 3-0 at home in Santa Cruz at a comparable altitude to Monterrey, racking up almost 4xG. Suriname would rank only slightly higher than T&T on current ELO ratings
While Bolivia routinely get smacked on the road, that calibre of opposition experience counts. Suriname’s hardest opponent in WCQ was Panama
In the away match against Panama, Suriname held on for a 1-1 draw but were thoroughly outplayed - Panama racked up 28 shots to 8 and an xG of 3.16 to 1.31, only equalising in the 96th minute
Looking over Suriname’s xG across the last 12 months, there is a clear overperformance in both attack and defence
As mentioned, this will be in Monterrey, and I expect it to feel like a home game for Bolivia. They have a large diaspora in North America and are an overall better-supported nation
Suriname’s squad got a boost with Leeds fringe striker Joel Piroe switching allegiances from the Netherlands. He makes up almost half the entire value of the Suriname squad, but I wouldn’t expect fireworks - he has zero senior caps and just one goal in all competitions this season
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