Brewers vs Braves Free Pick, MLB Free Picks, MLB Predictions 8/6/25

MILWAUKEE @ ATLANTA (ATL -135, 7.5)

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Brewers vs Braves Free Pick, MLB Free Picks, MLB Predictions 8/6/25

BREWERS @ BRAVES 8/6/25

It’s a quality matchup in the National League tonight. The Brewers hold the best record in baseball as they are ahead of the Cubs by a few games in the National League Central division. The Braves are well below .500 and they are in fourth place in the National League East division. Milwaukee is set to start Jose Quintana while the Braves turn the ball over to Spencer Strider.

Milwaukee is 69-44 overall this season. They are in first place in the National League Central by four games over the Cubs. The Brewers also hold the best record in baseball by 2.5 games over Toronto. Milwaukee has a 33-24 record when playing on the road this season. They have won five straight games. The Brewers have also won 20 of their last 24 games entering Wednesday. In their last game, the Brewers defeated the Braves 7-2 on the road last night.

Tonight, Quintana starts for the Brewers. The left-hander is 8-4 with a 3.50 ERA in 16 starts this year. On August 1, he made his last start against the Nationals. He threw five innings and allowed two runs and six hits in a 16-9 win. Milwaukee is 11-5 when Quintana has pitched this season. Quintana has a 2.49 ERA in nine starts on the road this year.

This season, the Brewers are hitting .256, which is third-best in the league. They rank seventh in terms of hits and fifth in terms of runs scored. Milwaukee ranks 22nd in home runs hit while they have also struck out the ninth fewest times. The Brewers are hitting .275 when playing on the road this season. They have a .302 batting average since the All-Star break. The Brewers are also hitting .284 against the National League East.

Atlanta is 47-65 overall this season. They are in fourth place in the National League East division. The Braves are 17.5 games back of the Phillies for first in the division. They are also 14.5 games out of a wild card spot. They have lost 10 of their last 13 games, and their home record is 26-28.

Strider starts for the Braves tonight. The right-hander is 5-8 with a 3.71 ERA in 14 starts. In his last start, Strider threw five innings against the Royals on July 28. He allowed two runs and seven hits in a 10-7 win. The Braves are 5-9 when Strider has started. He has a 3.07 ERA in seven starts at home.

This season, Atlanta is hitting .242, good for 21st place in the league. They have scored the sixth-fewest run in the league. Since the All-Star break, they have hit .234 and the Braves are batting .251 at home this season.

Milwaukee is 5-0 in its last 5 games, 6-0 in its last 6 on the road. The Brewers have now won 5 straight against Atlanta. The Braves have just 3 wins in their last 13 games.

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FREE PICK: OVER 7.5

Jose Quintana has started to regress already. In June, his ERA was hovering right around 2.66. His ERA now is 3.50. It’s still a solid number, but his xERA is 4.84 which suggests even further regression. He doesn’t strike out enough batters - 15.9% K rate - and his walk rate is fairly high at 9.4 percent. Plus, his numbers against current Braves hitters aren’t great and in his career he’s 3-6 with a 6.62 ERA against Atlanta. Spencer Strider is consistent. He’s allowed 3 ER or less in all but one of his 11 starts since the beginning of June. His ERA since then is 3.53. Each of his last 3 starts have ended up going Over the total. Same for Quintana and the Over has cashed in 7 of the last 8 for Milwaukee.