Broncos vs Saints Free Pick, NFL Free Picks, NFL Predictions 10/17/24
- J.A. Cavalier
- Oct 17, 2024
- 3 min read
DENVER @ NEW ORLEANS (DEN -3, 37.5)
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BRONCOS @ SAINTS 10/17/24
Sean Payton's current team isn't winning like he is used to, but neither is his former team. On Thursday night, Payton and the Denver Broncos take on the New Orleans Saints, whom he coached to nine postseason appearances and a Super Bowl championship in his 15-year run.
Both teams are coming off a loss. The Broncos (3-3) snapped a three-game winning streak last Sunday when they lost 23-16 to the visiting Los Angeles Chargers. After Payton resigned after the 2021 season, Dennis Allen, Payton's former defensive coordinator, took over the head coaching job for the Saints (2-4). New Orleans lost their fourth straight game, 51-27, to the visiting Tampa Bay Buccaneers last week.
This game was always going to be primarily about Payton's return to New Orleans, where he arrived in 2006 as a highly regarded offensive assistant but an unproven head coach as the city recovered from Hurricane Katrina. That was true regardless of the records of the teams. Payton’s former quarterback, Drew Brees, will also be honored at halftime of the game.
Payton is now in his second season with the Broncos His team finished 8-9 last year. Payton is attempting to demonstrate his ability to modify the offense that Brees flourished in order to suit rookie No. 1 draft pick Bo Nix. However, Nix is 23rd in the NFL in total yards (1,082) and has the 34th-highest passer rating (73.7).
Denver's defense, which is ranked fourth in both yards per game (284.3) and points per game (16) has been largely responsible for the team's success thus far. In contrast, Allen's defense in New Orleans has declined to rank 23rd in terms of points allowed (24.5) and last in terms of average yards (395.8) per game.
As the Saints wrap up a stretch of three games in 11 days, they are more focused on trying to snap their losing streak than they are on the opponent's coach. The Saints are more concerned with fifth-round draft pick Spencer Rattler starting at quarterback again this week. Rattler managed to rally his team from an early 17-0 deficit to a 27-24 halftime lead last week.
Following the teams' Tuesday walkthroughs, Carr (oblique) was one of five New Orleans starters listed as out. The others were linebacker Pete Werner (hamstring), guard Cesar Ruiz (knee), and wide receivers Chris Olave (concussion) and Rashid Shaheed (knee). Olave and Shaheed will not play. Shaheed needs surgery on his meniscus.
Denver starting CB Pat Surtain II is still in the league's concussion protocol and will not play either.
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Coach Rick Free PICK
FREE PICK: JAVONTE WILLIAMS OVER 45.5 RUSHING YARDS
Last week, the Broncos went up against the best run defense in the NFL - the Chargers. Williams got just six carries and wound up with 23 yards. In the end, Denver handed off to its running backs just 11 times. That should change this week. The Saints give up 133.7 rushing yards per game and they rank 28th in rush EPA. With Rattler at QB, the Saints would like to take some of the pressure off of him. Williams can do just that. In Week 5, he carried 13 times for 61 yards and in Week 4 he went for 77 yards on 16 carries. Look for him to have a similar outcome Thursday night.
