Chargers vs Patriots Free Pick, NFL Free Picks, NFL Predictions 1/11/25
- J.A. Cavalier
- 2 days ago
- 4 min read
LA CHARGERS @ NEW ENGLAND (NE -3.5, 45.5)
NFL ODDS, NFL PREDICTIONS, NFL PREVIEWS
CHARGERS @ PATRIOTS 1/11/26
One of the most important questions going into Sunday night's AFC wild-card game between the New England Patriots and the Los Angeles Chargers in Foxborough, Massachusetts, is this: Which team's pass rush can exert the most pressure?
Drake Maye of New England was sacked 47 times in 17 games, while Justin Herbert of Los Angeles was sacked 54 times in 16 games. During the regular season, those were the third and fourth most sacks against a quarterback, respectively.
In addition to playing a large portion of the season without starting tackles Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater, both of whom are on injured reserve, the seventh-seeded Chargers (11-6) have utilized 32 combinations on their offensive line this season, more than any other team. Including the six sacks backup QB Trey Lance took last week while Herbert was sitting out, Los Angeles has given up 60 sacks this season.
Five teams tied for 22nd place in the NFL in sacks with 35, including New England (14-3). Linebackers Harold Landry III (8.5) and K'Lavon Chaisson (7.5) lead the club in sacks. After missing the previous two games due to a knee ailment, Landry made a limited comeback to practice this week and is questionable for Sunday.
Coach Mike Vrabel of New England responded, "I don't think that's ever something you can tell in practice," when questioned about his team's pass rush. "You have to compete in live action and win, but you also need to be able to put the opponent on the ground. Justin's strength and toughness make him an excellent player. He has a lot of yards to dodge and scramble. Once more, I believe that will need to be decided on Sunday night.
The Chargers defense tied for 10th in the league with 45 sacks, but Maye, an MVP candidate, led the league with a 72.0 completion percentage this season. Linebacker Odafe Oweh, who was acquired in an October trade with the Ravens, accumulated 7.5 sacks in 12 games, while linebacker Tuli Tuipulotu led the team with 13 sacks.
For the most of the season, New England has started two rookies on the left side of the line - guard Jared Wilson and tackle Will Campbell. The Patriots have given up 48 sacks.
Jim Harbaugh, the coach of Los Angeles, has great faith in his team's defense.
"It starts with the players, then it's (defensive coordinator Jesse Minter's) ability and our defensive coaches' ability to put them in spots to make plays, to be most effective," Harbaugh stated. "What gives me confidence is my comprehension of the defense. There will undoubtedly be some wrinkles.
Los Angeles ranked ninth in points allowed per game (20.0), fifth in total defense (285.2), 12th in total offense (333.8), and 20th in points per game (21.6) at the end of the regular season.
New England finished fourth in points allowed per game (18.8), third in total offense (379.4), second in points per game (28.8), and ninth in total defense (295.2).
"I'm happy, I'm excited, but also, we're not here just to be here," Vrabel stated. "We must be capable of hosting games and contending for titles. No consolation award will be offered to anyone. We know what needs to be done.
On Friday, the Chargers ruled out two backup players: safety Kendall Williamson (ankle) and wide receiver KeAndre Lambert-Smith (hamstring). Along with backup tackle Austin Deculus (oblique), tight end Tucker Fisk (ankle), linebackers Bud Dupree (hamstring) and Del'Shawn Phillips (hamstring), and defensive back Elijah Molden (hamstring), rookie running back Omarion Hampton is listed as questionable. Hampton missed two days of practice due to an ankle injury and returned on Friday in a limited capacity.
Khyiris Tonga, a defensive lineman, is the only player the Patriots have ruled out due to injury. Wide receiver Kayshon Boutte (hamstring), offensive tackle Thayer Munford Jr. (knee), and cornerback Alex Austin (wrist) join Landry as doubtful.
Get free NFL Picks and NFL Predictions for the top games on the weekly 2026 NFL schedule from JA Cavalier, one of the industry's premier expert NFL handicappers. J.A. Cavalier has been bringing the NFL betting community the NFL free picks and predictions for nearly three decades. Visit daily for the best NFL money line and run line odds and game totals.
FREE PICKS POSTED DAILY, JOIN THE LARGEST FREE PICK CHANNEL IN THE COUNTRY. GET FREE PICKS DAILY FROM THE YLOSE TEAM.
FREE PICK:
WILL DISSLY OVER 0.5 RECEPTIONS
Dissly played in 9 games for the Chargers and has been a solid safety valve for Justin Herbert. Dissly has caught at least one pass in 7 of 9 games, including each of the last 3 games. New England ranks 25th in the NFL against the tight end position. Dissly averages 1.4 receptions per game and if you go back 20 games in his career, he’s at a 90 percent hit rate on this prop. Plus, he’s caught at least one pass in all of his road games this year.
