Coach Rick Bowe, MLB Picks, MLB Free Picks, MLB Predictions 10/15/25
- rbowe7447
- 3 days ago
- 2 min read
TORONTO @ SEATTLE (SEA -130, 7.5)
SHANE BIEBER UNDER 14.5 OUTS
Shane Bieber's 2025 season didn't begin until late August. His first few starts were pretty good, at least 5 innings and 2 ER or less. Bieber started seven regular season games. He allowed 2 ER or fewer in 5 of those starts. Sounds pretty good, right?
The Blue Jays won 5 of those 7 starts, but Bieber had some underlying issues. The first is his velocity. It's 1.5 to 2.0 mph slower than his Cy Young Award winning season in 2020. He gave up way more hard contact too. His hard hit rate was 48.2 percent and his barrel rate was 12.3 percent. If you recall, any numbers above 40 and 10 in those two categories are not good.
Those numbers are some of the reasons why Bieber's xERA is 4.58 compared to his regular season ERA of 3.57. Then, you can add in his one playoff start. That didn't go so well either.
Bieber lasted just 2.2 innings against the Yankees in the ALDS. He gave up 5 hits and walked one, which resulted in 3 total runs, two of which were earned. Toronto would go on to lose that game 9-6.
With the way Seattle is playing and the fact that they are at home, I think they get to Bieber enough to get him out of the game before the end of the fifth inning. For most of the season, Bieber's Outs prop was set at 17.5. In that first playoff start against the Yankees,
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