Coach Rick Bowe, NFL Picks, NFL Free Picks, NFL Predictions 12/11/25
- rbowe7447
- 3 days ago
- 2 min read
ATLANTA @ TAMPA BAY (TB -4.5, 44)
BIJAN ROBINSON PARLAY: 16+ CARRIES/60+ RUSHING YARDS
Tampa Bay has been one of the best run defenses in the NFL under head coach Todd Bowles. That is still the case in 2025 as the Bucs are ranked No. 8 in the league against the run.
However, over the last four games, Tampa Bay's run defense has shown some chinks in the armor. Opponents have run for an average of 4.4 yards per carry. The Bucs have also allowed opponents a Rush Success Rate of 42.1 percent.
Tonight, the Bucs defense will be without S Tykee Smith and LB SirVocea Dennis. That's two of Tampa Bay's top three tacklers. Plus, DT Calijah Kancey is still on injured reserve, so the Bucs defense is not at full strength.
What is at full strength is the Falcons offensive line. Since getting Matthew Bergeron and Chris Lindstrom back in the lineup, Atlanta has rushed for at least 120 yards in five straight games. RB Bijan Robinson has carried the ball 20 or more times in 3 of his last 4 games. He's also gained at least 84 yards in 4 of the last 5.
Atlanta won't have WR Drake London tonight and Kyle Pitts is questionable. Look for the Falcons to continue to try and run the football. That's why I like Robinson Over 16 carries and Over 60 yards. Put the pair in a parlay and you'll get odds of -125 at DraftKings.
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