Coach Rick Bowe, NFL Picks, NFL Free Picks, NFL Predictions 12/15/25
- rbowe7447
- 7 hours ago
- 2 min read
MIAMI @ PITTSBURGH (PIT -3, 42.5)
TUA TAGOVAILOA UNDER 28.5 PASS ATTEMPTS
Yes, the battle for the Coach Rick household is on today. Coach Rick is a lifelong Pittsburgh Steeler fan while Mrs. Coach Rick is a bandwagon Miami Dolphins fan. Remember, she graduated from the University of South Florida, which is what swayed her away from teams like Pittsburgh and Detroit.
Anyway, tonight, the Dolphins are on a four-game winning streak and still maintain a slim chance at making the postseason. They have been winning because they have been running the football. Over their last four games, the Fins are averaging 192.3 rushing yards per game.
The Steelers, albeit uncharacteristic, are horrendous against the run. They are 21st in rushing defense for the season, but over the last five games they've been terrible. Pittsburgh is allowing 157.6 yards per game over the last five. They rank 26th in EPA/Rush and they're allowing 4.7 yards per carry.
Tua does not do well in cold weather. In games where the temperature is less than 40 degrees (like tonight), he is 0-5 SU. His passer rating in those games is just 57. It only makes sense that the Dolphins would lean toward a run-heavy night.
That's one of the reasons why I like Tua to go Under his Pass Attempts prop. There is also this - in the last four games, Tua has attempted 23 passes or less. There is also his Pass Attempts prop line. It's set at 28.5, which is the lowest of the season.
Slice it up any way you like, but it all adds up to another Tua Pass Attempts Under.
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