Colombia vs Bolivia - Thursday 09/04/25
- Neil Mac
- Sep 3
- 2 min read
Under 3.5 Total Goals at -149 20*
Colombia are heavy favourites here, and it’s a must-win game for them, but there are several reasons not to expect a high-scoring affair
Bolivia still have a shot at the Intercontinental playoff and need a positive result here to keep that dream alive
They sit just one point behind Venezuela, so even a draw in this match followed by a potential upset at altitude against Brazil would put them in contention — but to make that possible they’ll need to play cautiously and take something from this game
The heat in Barranquilla will be extreme, so don’t expect the game to be played at a high tempo
Colombia’s attack has looked flat in 2025, with four qualifiers producing very mediocre attacking numbers
Reports suggest they’ll lead the line with 39-year-old Dayro Moreno, who has only three international goals to his name
Bolivia can take confidence from their recent 1-0 win over Colombia, even if it came at altitude and despite playing with 10 men after an early red card
Defensively, Bolivia have improved compared to previous World Cup cycles — still well below South America’s elite, but showing progress
Finally, I don’t see Bolivia scoring here, which means Colombia would need to win 4-0 or better for this to lose. That’s a big ask considering Colombia have only managed that margin once in qualifiers since 2012
✅ Under 3.5 Total Goals at -149 20*
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