Dolphins vs Bills Free Pick, NFL Free Picks, NFL Predictions 9/18/25
- J.A. Cavalier
- Sep 18
- 3 min read
MIAMI @ BUFFALO (BUF -11.5, 50.5)
NFL ODDS, NFL PREDICTIONS, NFL PREVIEWS
DOLPHINS @ BILLS 9/18/25
When the Miami Dolphins and Buffalo Bills play each other tonight in Orchard Park, New York, the Dolphins will be trying to avoid embarrassment. The Bills (2-0) have defeated their AFC East rivals six times in a row, including in a wild-card match following the 2022 campaign. In the regular season, Josh Allen's record against Miami is 12-2, which is his highest record against any opponent he has faced at least five times.
After a dismal start to 2025, coach Mike McDaniel's seat is getting hotter as the Dolphins, who have lost 5 of the last 6 against the Bills, continue to struggle. The team hasn't won in Buffalo since 2016, which was before McDaniel, Allen, and the majority of the other players on the field this week.
The coach responded on Sunday when a plane flew a banner over the stadium demanding that he be fired after the Dolphins (0-2) lost to the New England Patriots 33-27. "I won't be doing my job if I'm worried about my job security," McDaniel stated at the time.
Buffalo is a difficult team to deal with. The Bills rank second in the league in terms of scoring offense (35.5 points per game) and have amassed a league-high 450 yards per game. They crushed the New York Jets 30-10 after defeating Baltimore in a historic comeback of 41-40. In terms of average yards (375.5) and points (33.0) given up, Miami's defense is in the bottom half of the league.
The main focus of any scouting report is still Allen, the current NFL MVP, but James Cook has made the Bills a formidable team on the ground. With 176 rushing yards and three touchdowns, the running back ranks fourth in the NFL and is tied for the league lead, respectively. Cook is just one touchdown short of O.J. Simpson's team record, having scored a rushing touchdown in six consecutive games since last year.
During the Jets game, Allen was knocked out for two plays after taking a vicious hit to the nose that bloodied it. This week, he intends to protect it by donning a visor.
The Dolphins performed better in Week 2 following a 33-8 thumping defeat to the Indianapolis Colts in the first game. Tua Tagovailoa led Miami out of a 12-0 deficit to take a 27-23 lead with a 26-for-32 passing performance that included 315 yards and two touchdowns. However, he allowed the game to slip away by throwing a costly interception in the fourth quarter between Patriots scoring drives.
"I've never been on a team that started 0-2," Tagovailoa said. A defeat on Thursday would leave the Dolphins with a daunting 12-day record of 0–3. Tagovailoa, though, likened the current state of affairs to 2021, when the Dolphins had a seven-game winning streak after losing seven games in a row.
"You just got to continue to stick to your process, stay even keel, trust the guys, continue to bring those guys along, and you go out there and continue to play," Tagovailoa stated. "Do your job, do the best that you can and the result will take care of itself."
Linebacker Matt Milano (pectoral) and defensive tackle Ed Oliver (ankle) of the Bills did not practice on Monday or Tuesday. Defensive backs Taron Johnson (quad) and Cam Lewis (shoulder) have been sidelined, as has linebacker Shaq Thompson (hamstring, hand).
Waddle (shoulder), tight end Darren Waller (hip), and running back Jaylen Wright (knee) were among the eight Dolphins players who were limited on Tuesday. Aaron Brewer, the starting center, is also battling a hip injury, but McDaniel expressed his confidence that Brewer will play.
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DALTON KINCAID OVER 3.5 RECEPTIONS
Kincaid is a reliable target for Allen and has cleared this number in both games so far in 2025. Miami’s defense is one of the worst in the NFL so far and they do not defend tight ends all that well. After two games, they rank 20th in defending the position. If you go back to last season, you’ll see that Kincaid had at least four catches in 10 of the 16 games in which he played. That includes four receptions in each game against the Dolphins last year.
