Gimme Props with Luke Shuey, MLB Picks, MLB Free Picks, MLB Predictions - 4/14/25
- Luke Shuey
- Apr 14
- 3 min read
Antonio Senzatela (Rockies) OVER 5.5 Hits Allowed
Good afternoon, #PropNation! New week, fresh opportunity to crush the books with the MLB season well underway and the NBA Playoffs starting this week. I have three free props in baseball that I want to sweep with you all. We start off with a fade spot for Colorado Rockies pitcher Antonio Senzatela. He’s facing the nasty Dodgers lineup but that’s not even the best part. Senzatela has by far the highest WHIP in the MLB amongst starting pitchers, currently sitting at 2.14. Throughout his three starts he’s given up an astounding 27 hits, or 9 hits per start. His line today is sitting at O/U 5.5 hits allowed with a projection of 6.4 according to my models. That is a really nice advantage on the line for a guy who continually throws in the zone and to dangerous spots against baseball’s top lineup in LA. Lastly, he has a large sample size against the Dodgers and it’s not a good one. Current Dodgers hitters have combined for a .273 lifetime average with 8 home runs and 22 RBIs. I love for Senzatela to get smacked around again tonight. Take Antonio Senzatela OVER 5.5 Hits Allowed!
Clay Holmes (Mets) OVER 4.5 K's
The next prop spot I like is backing Mets’ starter Clay Holmes. Holmes is a veteran in this league but has just converted to a starter this season. He’s racked up 20 strikeouts in his first 3 outings, despite not throwing more than 90 pitches in a start yet. I have him projected above the line tonight against a Twins lineup that ranks in the top half of baseball at making contact, but can also get spotty at times. Their lineup hasn’t faced Holmes much in their careers so I feel Holmes can take advantage. He is averaging 1.36 K’s per inning pitched this season and I feel he goes at least 5 innings tonight. That should be plenty to clear tonight’s line. Lock in Clay Holmes OVER 4.5 K’s!
Anthony Santander (Blue Jays) OVER 1.5 Hits, Runs, & RBIs
Onto the third and final free MLB prop where I really like the value on the Blue Jays lineup tonight, specifically Anthony Santander who has been in the 3-hole in their lineup. This game tonight is projected for a high-scoring game, with the O/U at 9.5 runs. The Jays are facing Grant Holmes tonight and I see the top of their lineup causing damage, and the analytics back me. With Bichette and Guerrero Jr. leading things off, Santander should have multiple at-bats with men on base tonight. Santander is in a great buy-low spot as he’s batting just .190 on the season with 1 HR and 3 RBIs, very low for his projections. Last year he put up 44 home runs and 102 RBIs for the Orioles and he will be racking up the stats as the season progresses. I love his line tonight, hovering around even odds. Let’s smoke this one: Take Anthony Santander OVER 1.5 Hits, Runs, & RBIs!
Check out YLose Handicapper Luke "Prop Master" Shuey every day as he breaks down Player Props and releases free picks for NFL, NBA, MLB as well as College Sports such as NCAA Football and NCAA Basketball on his daily podcast available anywhere you get your podcasts from. Ylose.com/props.
