Gimme Props with Luke Shuey, MLB Picks, MLB Free Picks, MLB Predictions - 7/18/25
- Luke Shuey
- Jul 18
- 2 min read
Updated: Jul 19
MLB: Lucas Giolito (Red Sox) OVER 4.5 K's
What's good #PropNation?! The past three days are the quietest of the entire 365-day sports calendar. Each year I use it to reset mentally and really get prepared for the 2nd half of MLB and the amazing fall of football, basketball, and baseball that’s ahead. I’m locked in and ready to unload. Let’s dive right in. The first free play of the night is at Wrigley Field where I’m backing Lucas Giolito. His expected numbers aren’t lights out this season but his results have been and he’s got just a 5% barrel rate, well above league average. Because of this, he’s avoided hard hit balls and is getting a lot of whiffs lately, racking up 33 strikeouts in his last 5 starts. He’s gone over tonight’s line in each of the last 5 games and I expect him to again. My models have Giolito pegged for 5.6 K’s tonight, a nice advantage on his current line of 4.5 as of this morning. Lock in Lucas Giolito OVER 4.5 K’s for the first dub!
MLB: Mike Soroka (Nationals) UNDER 5.5 Hits Allowed
The 2nd spot I like tonight is another pitching prop and I want you to back Mike Soroka of the Nationals. He’s had horrendous luck this season so his surface level numbers look way worse than he’s actually pitched. His xERA is just 3.21 compared to his season ERA of 5.35. Thus, you'll see the public fade him and back the Padres offense, which is NOT the sharp move. Where I really love the value tonight is his hits allowed category. Soroka’s xOBA is just .219, a crazy low number for halfway through the season. He has good stuff and this Padres lineup is just 5 for 24 (.208) combined against him in their careers. San Diego is surprisingly the 25th ranked offense in the MLB and I believe tonight Soroka pitches really well. Lock in Mike Soroka UNDER 5.5 Hits Allowed!
MLB: Jacob Wilson (Athletics) OVER 1.5 Hits, Runs, RBIs
For the third free prop I’m going to the offensive side of the plate where I like Jacob Wilson of the Athletics to go OVER 1.5 Hits, Runs, RBIs. Wilson just made his 1st career All-Star game and is feeling good/loose heading out of the break. He has been incredible this season, boasting a .332 batting average and .837 OPS. Cecconi is not an easy matchup but Wilson can cover this line in so many ways because he does it all. I see him getting on and scoring a run tonight or maybe even having a multi-hit game. He’s one of my favorite young players and I will continue to back him until he slumps for an extended period - Take Jacob Wilson OVER 1.5 Hits, Runs, RBIs and let’s SWEEP!
Check out YLose Handicapper Luke "Prop Master" Shuey every day as he breaks down Player Props and releases free picks for NFL, NBA, MLB as well as College Sports such as NCAA Football and NCAA Basketball on his daily podcast available anywhere you get your podcasts from. Ylose.com/props.
