Gimme Props with Luke Shuey, MLB Picks, MLB Free Picks, MLB Predictions, NBA Picks, NBA Free Picks, NBA Predictions - 4/18/25
- Luke Shuey
- Apr 18
- 3 min read
NBA: Bam Adebayo (Heat) OVER 19.5 Points
Happy Friday and GOOD FRIDAY to #PropNation! We are 8-4 in our last 12 free picks and I am ready to rock with two free props in the NBA and one in MLB. To start things off we look at the Heat vs Hawks where the winner gets to travel to Cleveland to take on the Cavaliers in a best of 7 series. I am looking to Bam Adebayo with confidence in this matchup. Tyler Herro had almost the perfect game against the Bulls but he won’t be near as efficient in this one. Adebayo averaged just 15 points/game against Atlanta this season in 4 games but the oddsmakers show us value on the over, posting his line above his season average at 19.5 and we project an over. This is telling as the Hawks are without Clint Capela and they lack interior defense. Even Wendell Carter Jr. of the Magic just put up 19 points against them on 8 of 12 shooting in just 26 minutes and he averaged just 9.1 PPG in the regular season. All of the line functionality points towards Bam feasting tonight and he’s due for a more aggressive game. Look for him to stop settling for 3-point looks and get to his spot in the lane. Lock in Bam Adebayo OVER 19.5 Points for the first dub!
NBA: PJ Washington (Mavericks) OVER 15.5 Points
To the Western Conference we go where it’s another winner-take-all game in Memphis. I have another over spot that I really like. This time I’m looking at PJ Washington of the Mavericks to go OVER 15.5 Points. The Grizzlies have horrible defense and play a really uptempo style of basketball. They will need Zach Edey and Jaren Jackson Jr to focus on stopping Anthony Davis and Gafford/Lively in the paint. This should leave a nice mismatch for PJ to take advantage of. He got up 15 shot attempts two nights ago against Sacramento and scored 17 points despite going just 1 for 6 from deep. He should knock down a few three-pointers tonight and will be heavily relied upon. I don’t expect Thompson to knock down 5 threes so it should be the Davis and Washington show. He’s covered this line in both games against Memphis this season. If he gets 15+ shot attempts this is going to fly over for us. Take PJ Washington OVER 15.5 Points!
MLB: Padres/Astros YRFI (Yes Runs 1st Inning)
We head over to Major League Baseball to close things out tonight and I like a YRFI spot. For those of you that don’t know it means Yes Runs in 1st Inning or OVER 0.5 1st Inning Runs. My models have the Padres/Astros game projected to score 1.29 runs in the first inning tonight which is a really nice advantage on an even line at 0.5. It’s an interesting dynamic because San Diego ranks 1st in baseball in 1st inning runs while Houston is dead last. However, the Astros have added value facing Kyle Hart on the road who has had command issues in his first few major league starts AND the Padres also allow the 6th most 1st inning runs per game. The Padres lineup is lethal and Houston should get runner(s) on base early in this game. San Diego themselves average 0.95 runs/1st inning this season and have been a cash cow in this spot. We ride that value tonight: Take Padres/Astros YRFI!
Check out YLose Handicapper Luke "Prop Master" Shuey every day as he breaks down Player Props and releases free picks for NFL, NBA, MLB as well as College Sports such as NCAA Football and NCAA Basketball on his daily podcast available anywhere you get your podcasts from. Ylose.com/props.
