Gimme Props with Luke Shuey, MLB Picks, MLB Free Picks, MLB Predictions, NBA Picks, NBA Free Picks, NBA Predictions - 4/22/25
- Luke Shuey
- Apr 22
- 3 min read
NBA: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (Thunder) OVER 32.5 Points
Prop Nation we are back at it and I'm feeling the positive energy after smashing another Max bet last night. We have some work to do but a 4-1 max bet run is always nice. I have often said throughout the NBA regular season that I don't often take SGA's overs because it's such a public play, but tonight is a good spot to back him. The Grizzlies have to come out with some fight in them or the series is all but over. Gilgeous-Alexander actually had a horribly inefficent Game 1, posting just 15 points on 4/13 from the field and 1 of 7 from three. Most importantly, he only needed to play 23 minutes because it was the biggest blowout in Game 1 in NBA history. This performance was a contrast to what we saw against Memphis in a good sample size this season. Shai averaged 36.3 points/game against the Grizzlies in 4 games. Most importantly when he faces this below average defense he gets up more shot attempts than he averaged all season and LESS three pointers. He should attack the rim and midrange all night scoring with ease and getting to the free throw line. Expect a more competitive game where SGA is relied upon. Plus, he wants to get going for this hopefully deep Thunder playoff run. Take Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OVER 32.5 Points!
NBA: Myles Turner (Pacers) OVER 24.5 PRA (pts, rebs, assts)
To the Eastern Conference we go where the Bucks try to steal one at Indiana before they head home for Games 3 and 4. While all eyes will be on Damian Lillard's return from a deep vein thrombosis and whether or not he can shake the rust off, I find good underlying value from the books on Pacers big man Myles Turner. Turner has become a real threat from deep shooting 40% and making 2.2 threes/game this season. He's going to get open looks tonight as Brook Lopez loves to sag on the interior and struggles to make up ground in the pick & roll game. I specifically love his PRA line tonight because the Pacers looked to Turner a LOT in last season's 6-game series against Milwaukee. He played 34 minutes/game, averaged 19.2 points/game, 7.2 rebounds/game, and 2.8 assists/game. All of those are well above his current season averages and books aren't fully adjusted. Turner is the perfect combination to go against Milwaukee: protects the rim and spreads the floor on offense. I love this spot for him: Take Myles Turner OVER 24.5 PRA!
MLB: Tanner Bibee (Guardians) OVER 5.5 K's (Strikeouts)
We head over to baseball where I really love the spot for the Cleveland Guardians today. You can always bank on the Yankees being one of the most publicly bet teams each night. However, it's the PERFECT bounce back start opportunity for 3rd year starter Tanner Bibee. He's had a tough schedule to open 2025 and it's showed in his performance. He's had 3 road starts out of his 4 outings and has racked up an uncharacteristic 5.85 ERA and 1.50 WHIP. In his one home start he went 4 & 2/3 innings of shutout baseball and so far his starts have flip-flopped from 0 earned runs to 7, back to 0, and then 6. Today he's due for another good outing against a Yankees lineup that isn't too familiar with him. They have just 21 combined at-bats against Bibee with 7 strikeouts in those 21 ABs. With a 33% strikeout rate on current hitters I love his line tonight of 5.5 K's. He literally has not gone over this once this season and the books are telling us he will get 7+ tonight. The Yankees are the second worst team in the MLB at whiffing, racking up 9.5 strikeouts/game. This should be a smash spot: Take Tanner Bibee OVER 5.5 K's!
Check out YLose Handicapper Luke "Prop Master" Shuey every day as he breaks down Player Props and releases free picks for NFL, NBA, MLB as well as College Sports such as NCAA Football and NCAA Basketball on his daily podcast available anywhere you get your podcasts from. Ylose.com/props.
