Gimme Props with Luke Shuey, MLB Picks, MLB Free Picks, MLB Predictions, NBA Picks, NBA Free Picks, NBA Predictions - 4/29/25
- Luke Shuey
- 3 days ago
- 3 min read
MLB: Logan Webb (Giants) UNDER 5.5 K's
Good morning, #PropNation! 3 free props coming at you as always and feeling extra sharp today. The first play is a fade spot for arguably the best pitcher in the MLB so far this season, San Francisco's Logan Webb. I'm not saying Webb won't pitch well tonight, but I love his strikeout total under because the books are placing VERY strong line functionality on the under. Webb is averaging 7.33 K's/game so far this season but the books lower his line down to 5.5 tonight....FOR A REASON. He's facing the Padres lineup who has been pesky and tough against him in the past. They're ranked 1st in the MLB at making contact and avoiding strikeouts, averaging just 6.7 per game as a team. Last year Webb faced the Padres 4 times and got rocked in terms of hits every game, averaging 8 hits allowed per start. Plus, he didn't post 6+ strikeouts a single time. In fact, he averaged just 3.75 strikeouts per game over those 4 starts. He's on the road tonight, due for a tougher start statistically, and facing a very good San Diego offense. This is the value we look for: Take Logan Webb UNDER 5.5 K's!
NBA: Nikola Jokic (Nuggets) UNDER 51.5 PRA (pts, rebs, assts)
Another fade spot you say?? Why yes, we are fading one of the best big men to ever do it, Nikola Jokic, in Game 5 between the Clippers and Nuggets. Jokic will certainly get his stats, but this is going to be a very physical, low scoring affair because it is critical for both teams to get the win. Zubac is a really solid big man who can at least hold his own against Jokic. Of course last game Jokic dropped 65 PRA but I believe LA will adjust and force him to be more of a facilitator tonight. My projections have him going below his points line and below his rebounds line so the best value is to combine the two. Jokic only averaged about 43 PRA in 3 games against the Clippers in the regular season and has gone under this line in 3 of the 4 games this series. The style of play tonight should dictate another under. Look for us to cash this ticket hopefully with room to spare. Lock in Nikola Jokic UNDER 51.5 PRA!
NBA: Bobby Portis (Bucks) OVER 13.5 Points
For the third and final free prop I am looking to Bobby Portis of the Bucks to fly over his point total tonight. It's a close out game at home for Indiana and the Bucks are in disarray with yet ANOTHER season-ending injury as Damian Lillard tore his Achilles tendon. That marks the 4th consecutive unhealthy postseason for a Milwaukee team since their championship. It's likely they lose and possibly lose big tonight, but regardless of final score Portis will be relied upon heavily. He's the better matchup than Brook Lopez as a big man and with no Lillard it's more shot attempts to go around. Portis posted 28 points in Game 2 and 14 in Game 4. Look for him to be aggressive in a must-win game tonight. I fully expect him to shoot 15-18 times tonight which will be more than enough for him to clear his prop total. This is a top look in this game: Take Bobby Portis OVER 13.5 Points!
Check out YLose Handicapper Luke "Prop Master" Shuey every day as he breaks down Player Props and releases free picks for NFL, NBA, MLB as well as College Sports such as NCAA Football and NCAA Basketball on his daily podcast available anywhere you get your podcasts from. Ylose.com/props.
