Gimme Props with Luke Shuey, NBA Picks, NBA Free Picks, NBA Predictions 1/15/25
- Luke Shuey
- Jan 15
- 3 min read
NBA: Mark Williams (Hornets) OVER 23.5 PRA (pts, rebs, assts)
We smacked the free plays last night going 3-1 including our bonus free VIP play of Domantas Sabonis UNDER 40.5 PRA!! We look to continue momentum tonight in the NBA and we start things off with the Hornets visiting the Utah Jazz. In a bottom feeder game I LOVE Hornets center Mark Williams to go OVER 23.5 PRA in this matchup. First, he’s coming off by far his best game of the year where he was dominant against the Suns putting up 24 points, 16 rebounds, and 4 assists. He’s feeling confident and healthy again and he’s covered this line in 8 of his last 10 games. He’s also facing an incredibly depleted Jazz lineup that is almost looking like a G-league starting five. Lauri Markkanen, John Collins, and Collin Sexton are all out. So you’re telling me the likes of Drew Eubanks, Cody Williams, and Micah Potter are about to stop Williams in the paint? NOT A CHANCE. He’s going to feast tonight. Lastly, analytics favor the over here and by a good margin with my numbers projecting him for 27.1 PRA tonight. This is my top free play of the day: Take Mark Williams OVER 23.5 PRA!
NBA: Daniel Gafford (Mavericks) OVER 22.5 PRA (pts, rebs, assts)
Free play number two I am locked in as the Mavericks visiting the Pelicans. Both teams are on the 2nd night of a back-to-back and it’s difficult to predict who’s going to show up and perform so I’m going with a big value play for Mavericks center Daniel Gafford who’s likely to see a massive increase in usage rate. Last night against the Nuggets starting center Dereck Lively II sprained his ankle and did not return. It is all but a certainty that he will be sitting out tonight and Gafford should get the start. Gafford will reap the benefits of playing the Pelicans poor defense. In 63 career games without Dereck Lively playing, Gafford averaged 11.6 PPG and 7.7 RPG. Oddsmakers set his line far above his normal PRA line for good reason tonight and we follow this type of line functionality and value. Give me production out of the big man: Take Daniel Gafford OVER 22.5 PRA!
NBA: RJ Barrett (Raptors) OVER 20.5 Points
For the third and final free prop of the evening I’m backing RJ Barrett of the Raptors as they try to keep up with the Boson Celtics as 14-point underdogs. I faded Barrett successfully last game and he did minimal offensive damage after getting in foul trouble. Tonight, we back him in the points category as I think he’s going to be really aggressive. Barrett averages 22.4 PPG on the season and Toronto will be without Immanuel Quickley tonight. That means the ball will run through Scottie Barnes and RJ Barrett all game. I feel that the public play might be the under with Barrett only averaging 17.5 PPG thru 5 games in January. However, he shot TWENTY-SEVEN times in the one matchup against Boston earlier this season and put up 25 points. I feel strongly that he will get 20+ shot attempts again tonight which should be plenty to get him to the number. Lock in RJ Barrett OVER 20.5 Points!
Check out YLose Handicapper Luke "Prop Master" Shuey every day as he breaks down Player Props and releases free picks for NFL, NBA, MLB as well as College Sports such as NCAA Football and NCAA Basketball on his daily podcast available anywhere you get your podcasts from. Ylose.com/props.
