Gimme Props with Luke Shuey, NBA Picks, NBA Free Picks, NBA Predictions 1/16/25
- J.A. Cavalier
- Jan 16
- 3 min read
NBA Scoot Henderson UNDER 14.5 Points!
SWEEP, SWEEP, SWEEP!! A perfect 3-0 night for free plays as we are on a 6-1 run. Let’s keep the free action hot with more picks in the NBA tonight! Starting things off as the Clippers play the Blazers after their historic domination of the Nets last night. I don’t entirely know who will start/sit for the Clips at this moment so I’m going with the Portland prop, fading Scoot Henderson and going UNDER 14.5 Points. Henderson had his best career game on Tuesday night and it was a complete outlier performance against a REALLY bad Nets defense. He went for 39 points on 8/10 shooting from three. I believe the line has overreacted from this performance and I’m looking to take advantage. His O/U is sitting at 14.5 points while he averages 11.8 on the year. Even if he gets increased run with the starters Henderson will not be shooting ten threes again and I think it’s a let-down game for him against a stout Clippers defense. Scoot might get to double digits but my projections have him going for 12 points tonight, a nice advantage on the line. Lock in Scoot Henderson UNDER 14.5 Points!
NBA Alexandre Sarr OVER 21.5 PRA
For free prop #2 I’m going to tail the Wizards 7-foot rookie Alexandre Sarr to go OVER 21.5 PRA. Sarr has had an up and down rookie campaign as anyone would expect but he’s really still finding production statistically. He’s averaging 11.7 PPG, 6.6 RPG, and 2.3 APG this season. I think he confident coming into tonight after knocking down 3 of 5 three-pointers last time out and he’s facing a Phoenix front court without Jusuf Nurkic. The Suns let big men feast their last two games, giving up 22 pts & 21 rebounds to Okongwu of the Hawks and 24 & 16 to Mark Williams of the Hornets. You know they’re lacking post presence because they just acquired Nick Richards from the Hornets last night. He’s unlikely to suit up immediately so that doesn’t affect this line at all in my eyes. Let’s lock in another dub and take Alexandre Sarr OVER 21.5 PRA!
NBA: Evan Mobley UNDER 1.5 Made 3PT
For the third and final free prop I’m going with a bit of a juicy line but good juice is a moot point when a bet wins! Feel free or take this straight or add it into a parlay of your choice but I’m going with Evan Mobley of the Cavaliers to have UNDER 1.5 Made 3PT tonight. The big man out of USC has found a bit of a stroke from behind the arc this year but he doesn’t deserve a line of 1 & ½. He just went 0/3 against the Thunder from deep a couple games ago and OKC is literally the #1 three-point defense in the NBA. They’ve held opponents to 32% on the year and a staggering 21.5% over the last three games. Mobley averages 1.2 made threes/game on the season but the analytics project him for less than one tonight (0.83). It would take an outlier performance against the best defensive unit in the NBA for him to cover this. Take Evan Mobley UNDER 1.5 Made 3PT!
Check out YLose Handicapper Luke "Prop Master" Shuey every day as he breaks down Player Props and releases free picks for NFL, NBA, MLB as well as College Sports such as NCAA Football and NCAA Basketball on his daily podcast available anywhere you get your podcasts from. Ylose.com/props.
