Gimme Props with Luke Shuey, NBA Picks, NBA Free Picks, NBA Predictions 1/2/25
- Luke Shuey
- Jan 2
- 3 min read
NBA: Bam Adebayo (Heat) UNDER 19 Points
WHAT A DAY!! Yesterday started out 2025 with a bang. It was our single most profitable day in YLose Props history. We went 2-1 on free plays and 11-2 on the VIP card including 2-0 on max bets, 5-0 on the NBA, and profited +186*. Let’s stay hot as we dish out 3 more free winners tonight. The first prop I like is Bam Adebayo of the Heat to go UNDER 19 points. His line is inflated due to some recent 20+ point performances but Bam only averages 16.4 PPG on the year. In December his shot attempts were down, getting up 13.5 field goal attempts/game. The Heat are playing in a back-to-back against Indiana and he’s gone under this number in 3 of the last 4 games. Terry Rozier will be back from his one game suspension so the scoring should be handled mostly by Herro, Butler, and Rozier. Despite Adebayo scoring the rock well against the Pacers twice this year, they actually defend the center position well overall, ranking in the top half of the league for points allowed. I expect Myles Turner to make things tough on him tonight. Lock in Bam Adebayo UNDER 19 points!
NBA: Joel Embiid (76ers) OVER 3.5 Assists
Onto the second free play and I want you guys to take Joel Embiid of the 76ers to go OVER 3.5 assists tonight. Embiid sat out yesterday due to rest and we took advantage with Domantas Sabonis racking up 21 rebounds in his absence. Tonight, we expect him to play against the Golden State Warriors. With the Warriors being a top defensive unit I anticipate Steve Kerr working to get the ball out of Embiid’s hands and forcing other shooters to beat them. This should result in increased assist potential and the numbers back this up. Embiid is projected for 4.7 assists tonight according to our models and he averages 3.8/game on the season. If you look back at recent history, his assist numbers trend even higher, with Embiid posting 5.6/game last season and 4.2/game the two seasons prior. With his knees only getting worse he’s going to look to others more frequently on offense and spread the love. Lastly, I have a key stat for you. Golden state ranks 29th (2nd last) in the NBA at giving up assists/game to opposing centers. They allow 4.85 assists/game to the opposing big men and even more reason to like the over here. Take Joel Embiid OVER 3.5 assists!
NBA: Anthony Davis (Lakers) OVER 42.5 PRA (pts, rebs, assts)
For the third and final free prop I’m going out west and taking Anthony Davis to go OVER 42.5 PRA. He’s listed as questionable for the Lakers tonight but I expect him to play without much issue. He’s facing a Trailblazers team that allows the 5th most fantasy points to opposing centers and AD has been a stat machine this year. He’s averaging 26-12-4 on the season. In his one matchup against Portland this season he put up 42 PRA as he had 30-11-1. It was a fairly inefficient scoring night as he was 10 for 21 shooting. I expect him to get up 20+ shot attempts again tonight and get to the free throw line plenty. He’s much more athletic than Deandre Ayton and I love the matchup. Oddsmakers post his line above his season average which shows they also see a big game coming. Expect the Lakers to FEED the big man and for him to hit the boards strong. Take Anthony Davis OVER 42.5 PRA!
Check out YLose Handicapper Luke "Prop Master" Shuey every day as he breaks down Player Props and releases free picks for NFL, NBA, MLB as well as College Sports such as NCAA Football and NCAA Basketball on his daily podcast available anywhere you get your podcasts from. Ylose.com/props.
