Gimme Props with Luke Shuey, NBA Picks, NBA Free Picks, NBA Predictions 1/21/25
- Luke Shuey
- Jan 21
- 3 min read
NBA: Tyler Herro (Heat) OVER 3.5 Made 3PT
What a run it has been and it continues! Free picks go 2-1 yesterday extending the free streak to 16-6 (73%) while the VIP card profited yet again, specifically crushing NBA as we are now on a 14-2 run in the NBA! 🔥 I want you all to keep cashing tickets so let’s break down 3 more free props in the NBA. The first prop I want you to take is Tyler Herro of the Miami Heat to go OVER 3.5 Made 3PT. Herro averages 3.9 threes made per game on 9.6 attempts this season, corresponding to 41% shooting from behind the arc. He is coming off two games where he only made two three pointers in each outing and I think he puts up 10+ threes tonight at home. He just faced this same Blazers team on January 11th and went 7 of 14 from deep. He’s comfortable getting off his shot against this lineup and he’s not shy about shooting the ball. His line has dropped with Jimmy Butler back in the lineup but that only creates more space for Herro to work. I love this as a value buy spot. Take Tyler Herro OVER 3.5 Made 3PT!
NBA: Kyle Kuzma (Wizards) OVER 15.5 Points
The 2nd free prop tonight is all about line functionality. You guys likely know by this point that following true value and functionality from the books allows us to win more often than not. There is never a guarantee but the lines are telling us Kyle Kuzma of the Wizards is going to have a big scoring night. His points line is sitting at O/U 15.5 against the Lakers and we are rocking with the over in this spot. Kuzma averages 14.4 PPG on the season and is coming off one of his worst shooting performances of the season, going 3 of 15 (1 for 7 from three) against the Kings last time out. Yet, the books post his line above his season average. They see him likely getting up 15+ shot attempts with extra incentive against his former LA Lakers team. In his two games against the Lakers last season Kuz put up 17 and 20, respectively. Kuzma is having career lows in shooting across the board but he was a 22.2 points/game scorer last season. He will shoot enough tonight to get us to the number. Lock in Kyle Kuzma OVER 15.5 Points!
NBA: Ben Simmons (Nets) UNDER 21.5 PRA (pts, rebs, assts)...BACKUP OPTION IF SIMMONS IS OUT: D'Angelo Russell (Nets) UNDER 24.5 PRA (pts, rebs, assts)
For the third and final free prop it’s a fade machine: Ben Simmons. We’ve had success fading the constant question mark that Simmons has become. I don’t think he has a big game whatsoever tonight and the best way to get value is in the PRA market because it can be hard to predict his exact rebound and assist totals. Currently, they have him listed at O/U 21.5 PRA because he had a few productive games recently. However, he only averages 17.7 PRA on the season and he’s not going to find easy buckets against the Knicks defense tonight. Lastly, as of writing this, they did just drop a questionable tag on Simmons tonight due to illness so extra value exists here if he is able to go since he won’t be 100%. If he can’t go, the backup play is D-Lo! Take Ben Simmons UNDER 21.5 PRA and if he’s out we go with D’Angelo Russell UNDER 24.5 PRA!
Check out YLose Handicapper Luke "Prop Master" Shuey every day as he breaks down Player Props and releases free picks for NFL, NBA, MLB as well as College Sports such as NCAA Football and NCAA Basketball on his daily podcast available anywhere you get your podcasts from. Ylose.com/props.
