Gimme Props with Luke Shuey, NBA Picks, NBA Free Picks, NBA Predictions 1/27/25
- Luke Shuey
- Jan 27
- 3 min read
NBA: Onyeka Okongwu (Hawks) OVER 26.5 PRA (pts, rebs, assts)
With football season ending we are focusing most of our time and energy on perfecting the hoops analytic craft and following prop value. That leads us to our first free play tonight in the matchup between the Hawks and the Timberwolves. I want you guys to take Onyeka Okongwu to go OVER 26.5 PRA. Let me break it down. First, this line tells you everything you need to know. Okongwu averages about 22 PRA per game this season but has been growing his role in the Hawks offense tremendously. If you have watched any of Atlanta’s games lately you’ll notice the 6’10 product out of USC is incredibly efficient, versatile, and passes the eye test for a big time player in this league. He’s recently taken over for Clint Capela in the starting lineup and is coming off back-to-back 19 point games. I expect 30+ minutes from Okongwu tonight in a closely contested game where they’ll need his production with no Trae Young in the lineup. Lastly, the T-Wolves are middle of the pack ranking 16th in opponents center fantasy points allowed per game, a decent matchup there too. Lock in Onyeka Okongwu OVER 26.5 PRA for the first dub!
NBA: Giannis Antetokounmpo (Bucks) OVER 12.5 Rebounds
Onto the second free prop where I like Giannis Antetokounmpo of the Bucks to go OVER 12.5 rebounds. We’ve successfully backed the Greek Freak multiple times this season on this blog and I’m here for it again. This time we’re looking to the rebounding category. Antetokounmpo can snag 15+ rebounds on any given night and he’s averaging 12.8 per game in the month of January. But the main reason I love this play is the matchup. Last game Utah started a really bad rebounding lineup and it showed as the Grizzlies accumulated 59 team rebounds. They had 2 point guards starting (Sexton & Collier) and Lauri Markkanen for height, but he isn’t a good rebounding big despite his size, because he always plays on the perimeter. If Walker Kessler is the main man who Giannis has to out-rebound, let the Greek Freak feast on the boards! While this could be a blowout I expect the pesky Jazz to stay around long enough for Antetokounmpo to hit this line. And if they are losing big early, he likely will have a chance to get tons of boards from all their missed shots. Love this play as our numbers project him for 14-15 tonight. Take Giannis Antetokounmpo OVER 12.5 Rebounds!
NBA: Karl-Anthony Towns (Knicks) OVER 1.5 Made 3PT
For the third and final free prop I’m looking at 3-point lines and found one I like so much it might be on my VIP card. The Grizzlies visit Madison Square Garden in what is expected to be a scoring onslaught with the O/U sitting at 242.5 points. I really like Karl-Anthony Towns to knock down a couple three pointers tonight. First off, he averages 2 made threes/game this season and our analytics project him for 2.3 made threes, an absolute steal on a line of 1.5 @ -140 odds. Towns has averaged 2+ threes per game for the last 6 seasons and he’s shooting 43.1% from deep his season, a career high. He hasn’t hit this line in 3 games so he’s more than due, considering he’s had stretches where he’s made 2+ in 6 of 7 games. Lastly, I want to re-emphasize how high scoring this game will be and that Memphis allows 14 made threes per game. KAT should, in most scenarios, be able to account for 2+ of those. Love this value spot: Take Karl-Anthony Towns OVER 1.5 Made 3PT!
Check out YLose Handicapper Luke "Prop Master" Shuey every day as he breaks down Player Props and releases free picks for NFL, NBA, MLB as well as College Sports such as NCAA Football and NCAA Basketball on his daily podcast available anywhere you get your podcasts from. Ylose.com/props.
