Gimme Props with Luke Shuey, NBA Picks, NBA Free Picks, NBA Predictions 1/28/25
- Luke Shuey
- Jan 28
- 3 min read
NBA: Amen Thompson (Rockets) UNDER 18.5 Points
We come off a 2-1 night of free plays and an 8-2 profitable night on the VIP card. We dive into the analytics as always and try to find you guys an edge - all for free. The first matchup I’m looking to is the Rockets vs Hawks. I like Amen Thompson to go UNDER 18.5 Points For Houston. This is a makeup game from January 11th and both teams are playing for the 2nd straight night. Although Thompson is playing an incredible amount of minutes lately, his energy almost certainly will be lower than normal, after beating Cleveland twice and the Celtics in Boston last night. This is about the ultimate let-down spot statistically here. Thompson averages 13.7 PPG on the season but is putting up 19.2 PPG in January with Jabari Smith out. The analytics are showing me value on the under with him projected for 14-16 points, a nice advantage on the line. It would make sense for Ime Udoka to limit the starters' minutes tonight a bit but I like the play regardless. Look for Houston to spread the love tonight - Take Amen Thompson UNDER 18.5 Points!
NBA: Anthony Davis (Lakers) OVER 12.5 Rebounds
Onto the 2nd free play as the LA Lakers visit the Philadelphia 76ers. I absolutely love Anthony Davis and his rebounding total in this game. Sort of similar to the Giannis play last night I could see AD getting 15-18 rebounds tonight easily. He posted a ridiculous stat line last night dropping 42 points and 23 rebounds against the Hornets and the likes of Mark Williams. His interior competition tonight is significantly worse. AD will be matching up against Guerschon Yabusele who is only 6’8 and not meant to be a forceful center in this league. He’s more of a power forward that can step out and shoot the three. The rest of the Sixers lineup consists of Maxey, Gordon, Oubre Jr. and Paul George - really nobody is a rebounding threat. If Anthony Davis gets anywhere near his normal tick tonight he should soar over this line. I truly think he could hit it by halftime if the Lakers are playing solid defense forcing missed shots. Philly allows 53 opponent rebounds/game and it is almost stealing candy from a baby for get AD to account for 25% of those expected boards. The Brow averages 12.1 rebounds/game on the season but has been stepping it up in January, averaging 13.8 per game. Lastly, the reason this line is a steal is with Joel Embiid and Andre Drummond out there is simply nobody left to stop AD in the paint on offense and defense. These teams matched up once this season and Davis only had 9 rebounds but that’s because Drummond played most of the game and he is an excellent rebounder historically. I love that this has helped keep the line low tonight. Hammer time. Take Anthony Davis OVER 12.5 Rebounds!
NBA: Damian Lillard (Bucks) UNDER 7.5 Assists
Last but not least we go out west as the Bucks are on a road trip and find themselves in Portland, Damian Lillard’s old stomping grounds. This nationally televised game should get both teams up for tonight with that added storyline. We smacked Antetokounmpo’s rebounding line last night on a free play as he posted 18 boards. Tonight, I’m looking to Dame Lillard and his assist total. He leads Milwaukee with 7.3 assists/game on the season but tonight I’m fading his line. Despite going over this total his last three games, his assist numbers are down in January, sitting at 6.8 per game. Lillard put up 6 assists against the Blazers earlier this year and more importantly also went under (with 7) in his only career game playing with the Bucks at Portland last year. In that game he was aggressive, shooting the ball 23 times. I expect more of the same tonight in a statement game back home. Assists will be secondary and thus we get value on the under. Take Damian Lillard UNDER 7.5 Assists. Let’s sweep!!
Check out YLose Handicapper Luke "Prop Master" Shuey every day as he breaks down Player Props and releases free picks for NFL, NBA, MLB as well as College Sports such as NCAA Football and NCAA Basketball on his daily podcast available anywhere you get your podcasts from. Ylose.com/props.
